Live tourney - cold deck or double up?

[FyteOn]

Hero is a reasonably accomplished live small tourney player having made many final tables, winning several, including one this week which paid about $6k. The field of 170 has been pared down to about 45. Hero is 2.5x chip average and 2nd in chips at the table. Blinds are at 300/600, Hero has 20 BBs - it's a thin stack tourney.

Hero is BB and sees K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG limps (very suspiciously), 2 late limps (live players suck), SB completes, Hero checks.
UTG is 3rd in chips at table.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets 600. UTG limp very suspicious as we saw him flat call earlier with AA and then reraise over the top. Hero puts him on AA/KK and is trying to build pot expecting UTG to go over the top. UTG flat calls, lates and SB folds. Pot is now 4200.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets 3000. UTG comes over the top for 9k which will leave Hero crippled. But a win puts the Hero with enough chips to push the table around and/or cruise to FT. Pot is 16200.

Fold and drop to just about chip average or call to double up or get bounced?

[TwistedEcho]

Good so far! now don't fold

[potamophobia]

Wouldnt be surprised to see AA/KK/KJ/QJ/TJ for the villain. Only hand I am worried about is AJ, and outside possibility of 88. Im never folding this however.

[twonine29]

Tough spot. Really...really seems like UTG has 88 or AJ. If he had AA/KK like you think, why would he raise the turn? I assume he would call down on a JJ8 board.

If you've ever seen him limp J9-JQ from EP before, than that makes this an easier call.

If he's reasonably tight, he may limp AJ or 88(but probably not QJ-J9, and by the turn i don't see him raising any hand but a jack or a boat at that point.

FWIW, since it's a live tourney; look for the "well i got aces, i gotta go allin even though the board says i'm probably beat" look on his face. I think it's a pretty common tell for ppl who can't lay down AA ever.

Edit: Even so, at this point you've got so many chips in and the pot's huge, i don't think you can ever lay it down for 6K more, you got some outs at least.

[FyteOn]

Well, for full disclosure: When I bet the turn he looked at his chips and said, "well, I guess I have to go all in..."

[FyteOn]

I called. He flipped over 88. Dealer slow rolled a Q on the river and we all thought it was a K or J which would have given me the bigger boat or the quads.