Friday CBB plays

[dmoney416]

Yesterday: 3-2

Today:

Let's start it off with:

Florida St. +12

My picks later will include write-ups. Questions and comments welcome. GL to all today.

[dmoney416]

Adding:

Vanderbilt +2 over Arkansas (1.5 units)

This is between a regular and a large play for me. Arkansas beat Vandy by 15 in their last meeting just six days ago. Arkansas shot 48% from the field (24/50) in that game and Vandy shoot under 33% (19/60). Vandy was also outrebounded by 11. The Commodores should be eager to get revenge for this game.

The teams are fairly similar offensively, with Vandy with slight edges in points scored and FT%. Arkansas has the slight edge of defense across the board. However, a key component of this game in my opinion will be turnovers. Arkansas is often careless with the ball, giving it up to the opposition 15.5 times per game (1 to 1 assist to TO ratio). Vandy is much better with the ball, turning it over only 12.5 per game (1.33 to 1 assisit to TO ratio). In addition, Arkansas forces 14.1 turnovers per game while Vandy forces 15.4.

Expect Vandy to shoot better than their pathetic 19-60 in the last meeting. Also, I feel that Vandy is in prime position for the 8-9 game in the NCAA Tournament at this point. They need to climb out of that spot to avoid a bad 2nd round match-up. Vandy will get revenge for their loss a week ago.

Vanderbilt 73
Arkansas 68

St. Louis +3 over George Washington (larger play)

George Washington has won six in a row, but let's temper our enthusiasm on this winning streak. These games were Temple, Richmond, @La Salle, @Charlotte, Duquesne, and St. Joe's. The most impressive of these wins is probably @Charlotte, and this streak only includes two road wins and includes mostly teams that can not play defense. St. Louis is one of the few A-10 teams that can play consistent defense.

I watched the GW/St. Joe's game last night and it was one of the ugliest games I had seen in a long time. St. Joe's made 11 FGs, shoot under 25% (11/45), and had over 20 turnovers, yet they were in the game in the final minutes. Looking at the stat splits, the teams are awfully similar, but I feel that the Billikens are finally playing up to potential, as I was very impressed with them against UMass last night. They have been shooting and rebounding better as a team, as they have outrebounded their opponents in each of their last four games. I feel that the Billikens can match-up with GWs athleticism and I feel that STL is the more disciplined of the two teams.

St. Louis 66
George Washington 60

[dmoney416]

Adding:

Xavier/URI Over 148 (smaller play)

[dmoney416]

2-1 so far, but STL looks bad

Adding:

Mississippi +3

[dmoney416]

3-2, but down juice due to STL:

USC +1
Cal Poly SLO PK (smaller play)