Back2Back Top set stackage... millions to 1 chance??

matrix · #1 02-12-2006, 06:35 PM

I am still stunned ....

This was my FIRST hand at the table - followed by the second hand at the table - (Hand numbers are included for those that don't believe me and want to go check for themselves - seriously I am not making this up)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game #435599576
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $19.25
UTG+1: $19.70
CO: $33.85
Button: $10.50
SB: $21.30
Hero: $30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.5, CO folds, Button raises to $1, SB folds, Hero raises to $3.5, UTG+1 folds, Button calls $2.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($7.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $7.5, Hero calls $7.5.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($22.75, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $22.75)

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($22.75, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $22.75)

Results:
Final pot: $22.75
Hero showed Ah Ac
Button showed 3h Qh

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game #435601221
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $19.20
CO: $33.85
Button: $21.05
Hero: $40.20
BB: $19.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.25, BB raises all-in $19.25, Hero calls $16.25.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($38.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $38.5)

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($38.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $38.5)

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($38.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $38.5)

Results:
Final pot: $38.5
Hero showed Ah Ac
BB showed Ad Qd

OK so can any of the esteemed BBV posters out here tell me what the odds are on this happening again???

i) being dealt AA the exact same way in your first AND second hands at a table.

ii) the chances of hitting a set with BOTH hands....

iii) the chances of BOTH hands holding up and stacking a villain both times....

if this is a millions to one shot perhaps my luck is changing and I should go buy a lottery ticket [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BoxTree · #2 02-12-2006, 07:37 PM

You stacked two opponents on back-to-back hands and didn't even win a full buy-in.

What are the odds of THAT, sucka?!

matrix · #3 02-12-2006, 07:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You stacked two opponents on back-to-back hands and didn't even win a full buy-in.

What are the odds of THAT, sucka?!

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty good seeing as the Small stakes NL tables are full of short stacks... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Ed Miller has a lot to answer for.

Richie Rich · #4 02-12-2006, 09:48 PM

Nice job, matrix, although you didn't win enough to write home about. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] Neverthelsss, computing the odds of this occurence shouldn't be too hard when you consider that...

(A) 169 different hands can be dealt in HE (i.e. 22, 23o, 23s, 24o, 24s,... AKo, AKs, AA)
(B) There are 6 variations for a pocket pair (i.e. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
(C) When you are holding a pocket pair, the chances of spiking a set on the flop is 1 in 8.5

So the odds that you picked up EXACTLY A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ONCE would be:
1/169 * 1/6 = 1/1014
To pick up EXACTLY A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] TWICE IN A ROW would be:
1/1014 * 1/1014 = 1/1,028,196 or "more than 1 in a million"

The odds that you picked up EXACTLY A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] AND spiked a set on the flop ONCE would be:
1/169 * 1/6 * 1/8.5 = 1/8619
To pick up EXACTLY A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] AND spike a set on the flop TWICE IN A ROW would be:
1/8619 * 1/8619 = 1/74,287,161 or "almost 1 in 75 million"

Probably won't happen again in this lifetime, so enjoy! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

** I don't think there is a way to compute the odds that you stacked your opponent on either/both hands

jmillerdls · #5 02-12-2006, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You stacked two opponents on back-to-back hands and didn't even win a full buy-in.

What are the odds of THAT, sucka?!

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty good seeing as the Small stakes NL tables are full of short stacks... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Ed Miller has a lot to answer for.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to find where Ed Miller suggests raising with Q3s

matrix · #6 02-12-2006, 10:17 PM

75million to one - yup way more likely to win the lottery or die in a plane crash than see that ever happen again.

I think this is even longer odds than that tho considering I got A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in that order both times - and not A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] one of those times ...

My head is still spinning - it is a bummer that I didn't get paid off more - if poker paid out according to the odds of any particuar occurance I would have retired now to my very own island ....

matrix · #7 02-12-2006, 10:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Ed Miller has a lot to answer for.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to find where Ed Miller suggests raising with Q3s

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain he never did - or never would. He did however write a book recommending new players play with a short stack and gave good guidelines on how to do this.

Sadly this seems to have caught on - and despite the fact that nearly all SS players haven't got a clue, don't follow his advice at all and are pretty easy to beat, there is very little more infuriating to make a great hand and only get paid off by someone with a 7BB stack - or worse get a pp and have to fold it pf because a SS player with a 10BB stack raised 2BB preflop and has killed your implied odds.

marchron · #8 02-13-2006, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK so can any of the esteemed BBV posters out here tell me what the odds are on this happening again???

i) being dealt AA the exact same way in your first AND second hands at a table.

ii) the chances of hitting a set with BOTH hands....

iii) the chances of BOTH hands holding up and stacking a villain both times....

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, here goes:

The odds of being dealt any AA the first time: 1 in 220.
The odds of being dealt the exact same AA next hand: 1 in 1326.
The odds of flopping a set the first time: 1 in 8.19
The odds of flopping a set the second time: 1 in 8.19
The odds of the first hand holding up after the flop: 973 in 990 or 1 in 1.017
The odds of the second hand holding up after the flop: 711 in 990 or 1 in 1.392

The odds of the entire parlay: 1 in (220 x 1326 x 8.19 x 8.19 x 1.017 x 1.392) = approximately 1 in 27.7 million.

Nice shot.