How to Bet on Baseball Correctly

[wiesman02]

I'm a relatively new sports better. First began sports betting in September. After some mistakes in b-roll management, now I know how to bet correctly: Ie: I have a $1k b-roll and bet $22 to win $20 on each game.......2% of my roll each game. My question is as follows:

I know baseball u can either take the run line (1.5) or the money line. What is smarter to do, and what do the professionals / veteran cappers do. I'm just trying to get a feel for the correct way to do it.

Thanks guys.

[guids]

Before the myriad of offshore betting options, bookies only used a run line if it was an EXTREME case, ie, Sandy Kofax V a little league team. Should be easy to figure out from here.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Before the myriad of offshore betting options, bookies only used a run line if it was an EXTREME case, ie, Sandy Kofax V a little league team. Should be easy to figure out from here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be missing something because I don't see how this information is useful.

[guids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Before the myriad of offshore betting options, bookies only used a run line if it was an EXTREME case, ie, Sandy Kofax V a little league team. Should be easy to figure out from here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be missing something because I don't see how this information is useful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, seems pretty easy to figure out to me. Run lines are an extreme case to dissuade someone from betting a fairly "sure thing". Ie., the only time a run line used to be used is when the books had no other choice to get bettors to stop a "sure win" (although, obv, things have changed, I honestly havent examined some of run lines put out for baseball, so that may not even matter much anymore).

[DougOzzzz]

My theory, which I have not tested because I don't (yet) have a DB that includes run lines - is that generally it is best to buy the run with a dog, and take the ML with a favorite. Particularly, I think you should be buying runs with road dogs. Home teams win by 1 quite frequently. I don't feel like looking the numbers up right now, but I believe home teams win by 1 about 50% more often than road teams win by 1. A big reason for this is that the home team bats last. If the game is tied in the bottom of the 9th, and a guy hits a single with the bases loaded and none out, the home team still only wins by 1.

Another part of this theory is that the public generally doesn't like to lay big money. They may think the Yankees are going to win with Randy Johnson on the mound, but they might have qualms about putting up $300 to win $100. So why not lay the 1 run? With RJ, the Yanks should win in a blowout.

Conversely, dog bettors are attracted to getting big numbers. The run line cuts down on these numbers. So, I believe there is a public bias on betting the run line with faves and the moneyline with dogs.

A small piece of evidence to back this up:

last season, betting the teams probably most often favored (Boston, NYY, STL) would have lost you about 2 units on the season. Betting them on the run line would have lost you about 32 units.

[null]

guids when was the last time you bet baseball? The run like (-1.5 for the fav, +1.5 for the dog) is a standard option at almost all books, in additonal to the regular moneyline.

DougOzzzz, Cutter over at Fezziksplace has posted a lot about taking dogs on the +1.5 runline, I'll certainly be looking at doing that a lot this year.

[Mr. Sask]

Hi there!

I'm primarily a hockey better but I wager on baseball as well. After doing your own handicapping, you want to really look at value. I usually try to predict what the final scores will be, come up with a line (moneyline or runline) then compare it to the Vegas line.

The key thing to note is that if you play HUGE favorites, you will get crushed. Baseball is a looonnnngggg season and you want to last the entire season. The rule of thumb I follow is that I NEVER wager on a favorite that is at a line larger than -120. I usually look for small favorites or dogs (of any size usually). If I really like a huge favorite and if I think that the team can cover the 1.5 sread, I'll look once again at laying -120 or better. Most often these lines are in the + region.

So once again, do your hanicapping, never lay anymore than
-120 on the moneyline or runline, and you should have a successful season. The dogs will bite!

Later...

[wiesman02]

Thanks for the help guys. I appreciate it .

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
So once again, do your hanicapping, never lay anymore than
-120 on the moneyline or runline, and you should have a successful season.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, if the team should be -130, you wouldn't bet a -120 favorite? Why not? There can be value there. Yes, most value is in the dogs, but to say to never bet these types of favorites is very much oversimplified.

Also, there are MANY times to lay more than -120 on a +1.5 RL.

I think you need to show more proof of why betting -120 favs is such a bad idea.

craig

[Mr. Sask]

Hi craig!

Yes, never laying more than -120 is an oversimplification but it was very general advice I was giving. There are times when laying more than -120 is a good idea.

When referring to the runline, I was discussing the -1.5 line and not the +1.5 line. If you like a larger favorite, it may be wiser to bet on the -1.5 line and get money (or lay a lot less than on the moneyline).

Anyway, this looks like a great sports betting forum here, craig, and I'll try to contribute if I can. I'm by no means an expert (I haven't given up my day job yet!) and I have a lot to learn like everyone else! Keep up the good work!

Later...