theory - pls check my reasoning

Ringo · #1 03-07-2007, 06:10 PM

Half-assed theory, no doubt with dubious figures, but please have a look and offer corrections/comments.

5/10nl with full stacks. Assume I raise in mid position with rags and am 3-bet from a tight player downstream. I call, with the intention of leading into any ace-hi flop. My reasoning is this:

His range will normally be AA/AK/KK/QQ/JJ/TT or so. Unlikely AQ is in here, but this is just a rough range. Given that a flop lead from me will fold out everything other than AA/AK, does this make it a +ev move?

He'll have AK 16 ways, and KK 6 ways, giving 22 ways total. He'll have KK/QQ/JJ/TT 6x4 ways, giving 24 combos.

Assuming his 3-bet range is this, assuming AQ isn't in his range, assuming he'll fold underpairs to a flop lead, assuming my figures are correct, assuming an ace flops, etc.. (you get the idea) - is this flop lead a +ev move?

PantsOnFire · #2 03-07-2007, 07:14 PM

There is some more math you need to consider. If an A flops it could also come with a K, Q, J or 10 potentially giving him a set. If he has AA or AK, an A flopping is a lot less likely. On the other side of the coin, your trash may hit and it would be very well disguised.

As well, there is a lot more to consider than just the math. If he is tight but also tough, then you may not move him off of KK or QQ. Your table image is important here too. Also, why do you think leading out is the best way to steal here? It would also help if you had some physical tells.

As a final note, if it doesn't work, you may develop a new table image that you can exploit. This might be the greater part of the EV for this type of move (assuming you only try it once that is). And further, if it does work and you don't have to showdown, this might be something you can use in future hands. So is it +EV? I don't have the foggiest.

Ralph Wiggum · #3 03-07-2007, 08:28 PM

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is this flop lead a +ev move?

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Yes, but not for you.

mvdgaag · #4 03-07-2007, 09:46 PM

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Quote:
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is this flop lead a +ev move?

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Yes, but not for you.

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The arrogance... Please post something helpfull. TY [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ralph Wiggum · #5 03-07-2007, 11:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
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is this flop lead a +ev move?

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Yes, but not for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

The arrogance... Please post something helpfull. TY [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, and I don't mean to be arrogant, but I wasn't sure if the OP's post was a joke or not. There are plenty of worthwhile strategy posts in this forum, but this isn't one of them & it's blatantly obvious. Calling rags, into a tight player reraising you in position, in order to bluff an Ace that'll fall less than 1 in 6 times is not a formula for winning poker, unless you're the tight player.

Ringo · #6 03-07-2007, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
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is this flop lead a +ev move?

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Yes, but not for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

The arrogance... Please post something helpfull. TY [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, and I don't mean to be arrogant, but I wasn't sure if the OP's post was a joke or not. There are plenty of worthwhile strategy posts in this forum, but this isn't one of them & it's blatantly obvious. Calling rags, into a tight player reraising you in position, in order to bluff an Ace that'll fall less than 1 in 6 times is not a formula for winning poker, unless you're the tight player.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a joke post.

I had called a tight players preflop reraise with 6-8, with the intention of either hitting big or folding on flop. When the flop came ace-hi, I did a very rough calc, that it must be close to 50/50 the ace helps or scares him. It was only after the hand that I got to putting some figures in - and I know it's a contrived scenario. He could hit a set, an ace only flops 1/6 times, etc. I didn't call with the intention of betting an ace hi flop. There's many more ways 6-8 will win a big pot from a preflop 3-bet.

I was just really wanting to see where/if my reasoning was wrong, and get some feedback.

I know it's a goofy play, but I'm sure the logic would help in other scenarios, and be a beneficial discussion.

blankoblanco · #7 03-08-2007, 03:36 AM

Problem is tons of players aren't going to auto-fold QQ or KK when you bet at an A-high flop, even if the flop doesn't help them. Are you gonna fire again, knowing their flop call now makes at least one A their more likely holding?

Godson · #8 03-08-2007, 07:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Problem is tons of players aren't going to auto-fold QQ or KK when you bet at an A-high flop, even if the flop doesn't help them. Are you gonna fire again, knowing their flop call now makes at least one A their more likely holding?

[/ QUOTE ]

El_Hombre_Grande · #9 03-08-2007, 08:42 AM

IMO, this is big -time negative EV. Why? He may have that syndrome known to effect some players that causes then to hold their cards even when they should know their beat. ie, (F you I've got KINGS buddy), plus the possibility of a combo draw that he may hold, and sad as it may seem other players may suspect a bluff from time to time. So I'm against it.

NMcNasty · #10 03-08-2007, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Problem is tons of players aren't going to auto-fold QQ or KK when you bet at an A-high flop, even if the flop doesn't help them. Are you gonna fire again, knowing their flop call now makes at least one A their more likely holding?

[/ QUOTE ]

People don't just not auto-fold QQ and KK, they auto-call. Also, frontbets rarely ever get respect.