NBA injured player ATS Reactions/ Please comment

[prad]

I'm not normally a big ATS spread guy. I think home/away records and individual match ups and most importantly travel schedules are better predictors of ATS outcomes.

Given this I do think there is an over reaction in line moves regarding injured stars/starters, ie. Miami is 5-1 ATS w/o wade and the Clippers are a team that was playing well and seem to be continuing that trend even after starting pg. Shaun Livingston's horrific injury. 3-1 ATS since his injury. There are fefinitely exceptions like Detroit w/o R. Wallace.

Given this I'm on Miami -1.5
Any comments or thoughts?

[Scientize]

I think that injuries need to be taken on a case by case basis. Each situtation is very different. The Heat are a veteran team and losing Wade motivated Shaq, who is still dominant when he wants to be. They knew that Wade might not be back for some time. Shaq knew that this put all the pressure on him, which as anyone who knows Shaq knows that he can handle it. This takes the pressure off his teammates because they can rally around him, he's going to carry them and that brings confidence. Teams may look at the loss of Wade as a big factor and take them lightly, add in the fact that recent film on the Heat goes out the window because they switched up their style so much by going back to Diesel ball. The thing about Diesel ball is that it intimidates opponents mentally and wears on them physically. It's really a good style for winning, especially with veterans who don't mind the pressure of tough close games. The adjustments to the line due to Wade don't matter much, because it's a very different team and the pieces still fit. Most of the guys are very comfortable playing dump the ball into Shaq basketball because they have played with him in the past. The Heat still think they can win the East without Wade, because of Shaq and rightly so.

Last season the Clippers actually thought they were a contender, because they had Sam Cassell pushing Elton Brand to be great and they were winning. That has changed quite a bit, they don't have that confidence. Shaun Livingston was a player with potential, a guy who was well liked by his teammates. He's not an offensive focal point, nor did he really lead that team to be great. The Clippers go as Sam Cassell goes, if he is playing well they are playing well. Otherwise they are a flock of sheep with no shepard. Brand is a beast, but he's worn out somewhat this season and appears to have lost some of his intensity on a nightly basis. Losing will do that though, and they are losing because Cassell is in and out of the lineup so much. Add in the fact that the players, coaches, and management are not on the same page and you will see inconsistent play. Even if they are 3-1 ATS without Shaun, they are still a guess as to what they are going to do from night to night, especially on the road. They have a group of talented players who don't really know how to win without Cassell's leadership and swagger in full effect. In the NBA everyone has talent though, so their results will vary. Lines may be skewed because they are viewed as a losing team on the road and some see the Livingston injury as an emotional shot to the moral. The moral can't get much worse though, and as teammates these guys aren't really bickering with each other, it's more of a problem with the coach and front office. Things can only get better as bench players get more minutes and develop, however the Clippers are still a team that needs to be evaluated in large part by their style of play and how it matches up to their opponents. Their expectations are so low, which may relieve some pressure on the team once they get past the fact that they are no longer the toast of the town.

In the case of Rasheed Wallace, he is a huge part of their team both offensively and defensively. He's their best defender against talented post players because he is so long and athletic. His ability to step out and spread the floor also gives them a strategic balanace offensively. He is not going to be out for the rest of the season though and his team is just trying to buy time until he gets back. They can't really make up for his game, but they can get good minutes from Maxiel and McDyess in the meantime. They are not an elite team without him though and their opponents know it.


So in all three cases the injuries are very different in how they actually change the complexion of their teams. That is what matters, because injuries mean opportunities for someone else. The opportunity in the case of the Heat leads to Shaq regaining dominance. In the case of the Clippers it leads to minutes for guys who are hungry but still as inconsistent as Livingston. The main point about the Clippers is that they will go as Sam Cassell goes, which hasn't changed because of the Livingston injury. The Pistons need Sheed to be an elite team, but they still play hard and have the mental focus to win games. The problem is that they just flat out are not nearly as good because of the elite talent that is lost that can't be replaced.

Hope that helps, this is the short version.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
excellent post but too long to quote

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Wow, that was really good. I hope you post more.

The other thing about the Heat is that other than maybe Orlando, there really isn't another center dominated team who can man up and guard Shaq. So when the offense goes through him, it's hard for a lot of Eastern teams to defend. Plus he's solid at kicking the ball back out to some very good perimeter shooters in Miami. Also, the lack of good offensive centers in the East helps to keep Shaq out of foul trouble to an extent. But when the entire offense is centered around Wade, there are other teams who play a similar style and can guard him, and since he touches the ball so much it makes Shaq somewhat irrelevant on the offensive side. I do agree with the OP that perhaps the public is overreacting to the injury and moving the lines beyond what they should be.

As for the game tonight, I like Miami -1.5 vs. the Bulls, although that line is moving in Miami's favor which always causes me to look twice. Big Ben sat out of practice on Tuesday, but it looks like he will play anyway. If he's not 100%, I think Shaq terrorizes that Chicago defense because PJ Brown can't guard him for too long. If they start doubling, Shaq kicks it out to Williams or Jones who have no shyness in taking the threes. Kapono being out does hurt. I think I might like the UNDER even more than the Heat -1.5.

[New001]

The line is pk at Cris.