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#1
03-06-2007, 11:20 PM
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politics at WSEX
finally starting to see a little bit of movement on the politics lines at WSEX. been sitting on a huge Hil short for about a month and a half that is just now at even money with the vig to buy back. think she will continue to drop, although might have to wait another few months.
Gore is still wayyyy overvalued since I would put his chance to run at maybe 20% and his chance to get the nomination if he did run at maybe 15% (possibly less for both of those as well). Edwards is undervalued -- on the repub side I think Rudy is overvalued and Huckabee is undervalued at the moment. -- as far as election winner being dem or repub, I think the spread is too big for there to be any value in either of the choice at the moment 
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#2
03-06-2007, 11:59 PM
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Re: politics at WSEX
[ QUOTE ]
Gore is still wayyyy overvalued since I would put his chance to run at maybe 20% and his chance to get the nomination if he did run at maybe 15% (possibly less for both of those as well). [/ QUOTE ] If Gore runs, you will double to triple your money if you sell his shares the day after the announcement (and the shares will not drop to 0 until close to the end of the year), so that 14-ish price is actually not that bad at all. Edwards is a long term zero, but there may be some medium term value there if he has good numbers in Iowa later on. Huckabee's a dead cat waiting to bounce. Overall there's just about zero value in any of these picks at this point IMO, except Gore and maybe shorting a GOP victory. Meh.
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#3
03-07-2007, 12:37 AM
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Re: politics at WSEX
agree on dead cat bounce, but i think the chances of that bounce are very good.
you really think gore will jump to 30+ if he decides to run? i seriously doubt that. and i really really don't think he's going to run.
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#4
03-07-2007, 01:12 AM
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Re: politics at WSEX
If he announces he's going to run of course the price is going to shoot up.
The sell-buy on Gore right now is 14-18. So shooting up to 30 if he makes an announcement is pretty realistic. Standing to 'double or triple' your money seems a bit of a stretch though. It would have to go all the way up to 36-41 or something just to double and that seems a bit unrealistic. I'm readily admitting though that I'm new to this politics betting thing and am just guessing/speculating.
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#5
03-07-2007, 02:38 AM
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Re: politics at WSEX
the problem is the event is so far off you are losing
time value of the $$$
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