Probability I wasn't cheated

[Eaglesfan1]

Here's the deal, this happened a while ago to one in a group of my friends, we conclude pretty much he was cheated, but still debate that MAYBE he wasn't. So being the natural gamblers we are, we had to bet about what % the twoplustwo community would say as the amount of time he wasn't cheated here. Looking for a % here, more replies the marrier.

Here's the scene... Underground card club, extremely shady place, lot of mob looking/talking guys. One table going 2/5 NL 400$ buy in. Dealers switch every half hour. Young 18 year old kid sits down out of place. First dealer comes in kid isn't dealt much sits tight, is up a little. Second dealer comes in. Then the kid is KQ suited and flops the K high flush, runs into the A high flush. Down a stack... 15 minutes later, same dealer kid gets dealt KK, flops a set all spades on board, runs into the nut flush. Down 800$. Dealer changes and kid gets a few cards and builds back to 600$. Now the other dealer comes back into the game... After a few mins. Kid gets dealt 1010... flop happens to come A109, Kid runs into AA and walks out of the place biting his tongue.

So, remember we have money on this, after you mathemeticians factor in everything... What % of the time was this all a mathematical coincidence without foul play?

[Kerth]

There's no way to calculate a probability of being cheated. That doesn't even make sense.

Edit: In a situation like that.

[drbst]

18 year old kids should not play no limit in the first place.

[wiper]

the odds of that happening are long, but just because it happened in a cardroom where the proprietors are all wearing suits and eating knocci doesn't make them go up...

tough night, yes.

cheated, probably not.

were all his losses to one specific person? and what about the decks? were they shuffled in front of him?

[AaronBrown]

To answer a question like this, it's important to consider both hypotheses. It's not enough to say that one is unlikely, it has to be more unlikely than the other.

Hypothesis 1: The game was honest, and this was just bad luck. In that case we have to ask first, how unlikely it is that a player in no-limit hold'em will win steadily, but take big losses on three hands that wipe out his winnings and stake. That's quite likely, it's typical of no-limit poker, especially if the person playing it is used to limit poker.

Second, with two dealers, all the big hands happened with one of the dealers. That will happen one time in four by random chance, no reason to suspect cheating.

Third, the specifics of the hands. You don't give all the details, how many players were in, what the betting is and so on. For example, when the King high flush lost to Ace high, were there three or four suited cards on the board?

However, taking some guesses, if you are playing at a table of 10 and everyone stays in with a suited Ace, your King high flush will lose to Ace high a bit less than one time in 10. So hand one is not unlikely.

On hand two, if the flop is all one suit, someone else will have a flush about one time in three. Of course, not all of those flushes are likely hands to see the flop with, but since you said "nut flush" I assume there was at least one high card in the hand.

When you flop the middle set, someone else will have the top set about 1 time in 40. This is the least likely of the three occurances.

All in all, the three hands don't seem particularly unlikely to me. In an evening of poker, much more unlikely things are likely to happen. A player who bets big into possible nuts in no limit has to expect to take some big losses over the evening. Hopefully, he makes it back by getting some strong hands to fold when they don't have the nuts, but in this case he didn't.

Hypothesis 2: The dealer was dishonest, and had a deal with one or more of the players to set up a few hands against a newcomer with a decent stack.

That explains the three hands, but it raises other questions. Why would the club allow this? Presumably, because they don't want people like you playing. That might or might not make sense, you were there, I wasn't.

Second, are these likely cheating hands? The trouble with them is they require the entire deck to be stacked. That's only practical (and presumably we don't have the world's best card mechanic at an underground club dealing $2/$5) if the decks are switched. That's pretty hard to miss if you're paying attention. Unless everyone but you is in on this, or they don't care if you think you're cheated, it seems unlikely.

There are much easier ways to cheat at hold'em. You can use a marked or short deck, or you can switch just one hand after the board is dealt.

Moreover, none of these were smart set-ups. Most people won't make large bets into possible nuts, but all three hands were set up like this. A smarter cheater would make sure that the winning hand couldn't be sure (if the deal were honest) that it was the nuts.

Verdict: No reason to suspect cheating.

[OrangeKing]

As people said already, putting a percentage chance that your friend got cheated is really hard (and kind of silly) to do. But just to indulge you, and help you with your bet, I'll say it's very low and give you a number of 5%. Chances are, whichever of you had the under wins.

[joker122]

if his losses were to different players, then i don't see why you would suspect cheating. do you think the dealer just had it out for this kid? that seems weird/unlikely.

[AaronBrown]

I don't find that part of it unlikely. If the dealer is cheating, the regulars would know to tip back a good share of their winnings. Moreover, some of the regulars could be house employees (casinos are required to disclose this upon request, but no such rules apply to illegal shops).

There are places where undesireables (which could include college kids, depending on the place) are routinely cheated. That gives a bonus to the regulars and keeps the bad element away.

[timotheeeee]

I've had worse runs at NL on Party Poker. I'm talking losing top boat to quads, losing underboat to a higher boat, my flopped set getting beat by a higher flopped set, my flopped sraight getting sucked out by a higher straight, KK running into AA, all within 20 minutes, each time losing my entire buy in. This stuff happens all the time, so it's pretty much impossible to determine a percentage if this is all the info we have.

[Banks2334]

Nothing unusual. If you've played any amount of poker then you should have experienced similar bad runs.