fold Aces preflop?

[lordTasse]

BB is auto allin in the next hand

PokerStars Game #8753373631: Tournament #44545141, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/03/05 - 15:57:02 (ET)
Table '44545141 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: lordTasse (170 in chips)
Seat 3: BlakJakk (870 in chips)
Seat 8: treysfull21 (985 in chips)
Seat 9: Minus790 (11475 in chips)
lordTasse: posts the ante 50
BlakJakk: posts the ante 50
treysfull21: posts the ante 50
Minus790: posts the ante 50
BlakJakk: posts small blind 300
treysfull21: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lordTasse [Ac Ad]
Minus790: raises 10825 to 11425 and is all-in
lordTasse: folds
BlakJakk: folds
treysfull21: folds
Minus790 collected 1700 from pot
Minus790: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1700 | Rake 0
Seat 2: lordTasse (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: BlakJakk (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: treysfull21 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Minus790 collected (1700)

[Mingdu]

I push that ... might buy you another orbit if the other small stacks catch some cards

[lordTasse]

a double up is worthless for me, because im still auto allin in the big blind

[Mingdu]

It isn't a double ...

You quadruple up

[Slim Pickens]

I'd guess you're less than 10% to get a call from one of the other two and about 5% to have someone else bust on this hand. You're then about 50% to have someone bust on the next hand. You have basically zero chance after that.

Calling and winning (guessing about 80%) gives you 680, still putting you all-in on your next BB, but with a 50% chance of surviving and finishing 2nd a non-negligible fraction of the time.

It looks close enough I don't care what you do.

[MathisFlame]

I wouldn't fold it because it's not sure that the big blind will bust next hand. If you fold now your chances of winning are near to zero.

And please use a converter.

[citanul]

unless the blinds go up, isn't the guy not auto all in next hand?

[pauliewalnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
unless the blinds go up, isn't the guy not auto all in next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Factoring in the ante, he will be.

I call anyway.

[Shillx]

ICM says that your equity is 13.3% if you fold, 15.5% if you call and the BB overcalls and almost 18% if you call and the BB folds. ICM probably isn't a good model in this spot since you will be all-in next no matter what you do here should the BB survive.

The general rule with all-ins is that you will survive 1/3* of the time as long as you play HU. So if you give yourself 20% equity if you survive, you have roughly 20%*(.5+.5*.33) = ~13.3% should you fold this hand. It happens to agree with ICM this time but sometimes it doesn't.

FWIW you should call here.

* - If you go all-in, you will get KO'ed 50% of the time. Then someone else will go all-in and have a 50% chance of surviving so even if you win the 1st all-in, there is a 50% chance that will have to go AI again. The chance of going broke in this case is .5+.5*.25+.5*.25*.25...= .66666. If 3 people are taking turns going AI then your chance of busting is about 57% if you have to go all-in 1st.

[fluorescenthippo]

hm id probably fold in game but i guess i would be wrong