Live 3/6 LO8 40 point hand

[Little Wing]

Live 3/6 O8

I'm in early position with A Q J T (suits don't matter) and 6 of us see the flop for one bet. (3BB in pot)

Flop comes A Q J rainbow, checked to me and I bet. MP Player to my left raises, one LP calls 2 and I call. Three of us see the turn with 6BB in pot

Turn comes A Q J (4), I check and MP bets out, LP folds and I call. (8BB in pot) Heads up to the river

River comes A Q J 4 (Q). I bet and MP calls and shows down K T.

Pretty standard or should I have folded to the flop raise?

[bbartlog]

Played correctly as far as I can tell, though in the unlikely event that villain has AKQT you're getting mostly freerolled. More generally, it seems like you probably have six outs to scoop and four to split, so you have odds to call both raise and turn bet (though not by a large margin).

[HOWMANY]

Sort of hard to have 4 outs to chop against KT.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in early position with A Q J T (suits don't matter)

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Little Wing - Suits matter to me. They matter a lot. I’m almost certainly folding AQJT from early position unless the ace is suited to one (or two) other card(s). From late position, I might see the flop in a loose, passive game with a suited queen or jack. But I’m generally not playing the hand at all if it’s a rainbow - not even if I’m on the button. Well... if I hadn’t played a hand for a long time, I’d probably waste a bet with AQJT-rainbow from late position just for table image purposes.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes A Q J rainbow, checked to me and I bet.

[/ QUOTE ]Seems reasonable.

[ QUOTE ]
MP Player to my left raises

[/ QUOTE ]Looks a lot like a Broadway (ace high straight). Possibly a set of aces.

[ QUOTE ]
one LP calls 2 and I call.

[/ QUOTE ]Seems right. I think you easily have odds to call the raise. Hardly worth figuring. <ul type="square">This is an addendum. I would have guessed calling the raise was correct, but it turns out it isn’t. (See below). Shows how much I know![/list]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn comes A Q J (4), I check and MP bets out, LP folds and I call.

[/ QUOTE ]Assuming MP has the Broadway (KTXY), you have six outs and know where 10 cards are (your four cards, the four cards on the board, and the king-ten in Villain’s hand). In that case it’s 36 to 6 or 6 to 1 that you’ll lose. From this point, it will cost you 1 bet to possibly win 8 or 9 bets. Seems right.

On the other hand, if MP has flopped a set of aces (AAXY), you’re drawing dead.

You have to decide. Which does MP have, a Broadway or a set of aces? From what you can see, there are about 16 ways for MP to have KT and only 1 way for MP to have the set of aces. It’s not quite that, because of KKTY, AAKT, etc. - but 16 to 1 is a reasonable first approximation, and I think that’s as far as I’d go with it. (Maybe it’s really only 15 to 1 - whatever, I’m not going to bother figuring it).

At any rate, I think you have to put MP on the Broadway, but once in a while (one time out of fifteen or sixteen, or so) you’re going to get stung by the set of aces when the board does pair for you.

[ QUOTE ]
River comes A Q J 4 (Q). I bet and MP calls and shows down K T.

[/ QUOTE ]O.K. Good. I had not read ahead and was thinking as I read your hand report. K-T is what we expected to see.

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty standard or should I have folded to the flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]There ended up being 10 big bets in the pot. From the point where you called the raise, you put in 2.5 of those 10 big bets. Let’s assume you fold to a bet on the river if the board doesn’t pair. (I don’t like playing that way, but let’s assume that’s how we would play it). Looking at it in that way, it’s going to cost you 1.5 big bets to see if the board pairs on the turn or river. And when the board does pair, starting from when you call the raise, you’re going to collect 7.5 big bets.

Going back to the flop, where, if we put Villain on the Broadway (with KTXY), we know the whereabouts of 9 cards (the four cards in Hero's hand, the three flop cards, and the king-ten in MP's hand, 52-9 = 43. There are 43 cards whose whereabouts are unknown, including 6 outs for Hero. On the 37 times Hero lose, he loses a sub-total of 37*1.5 = <font color="red">-55.5</font> big bets.
And on the 6 times Hero wins, he wins a sub-total of 6*7.5 = 45 big bets.

Hmmmm.... The result surprises me. I thought Hero would win more than he loses. But he doesn’t. It’s kind of close, but calling the flop raise actually looks like a negative e.v. play, a small mistake. Hero needs another opponent calling a bet on the turn and river to make the play a positive e.v. play. Interesting.... Although I’ve gone over my thinking several times, maybe I made a mistake somewhere. I’ll review this result tomorrow when I’m fresher and post a correction if needed. (But I don't think I'm wrong).

At any rate, at this point in time it looks to me like you need to collect two more big bets on the occasions when you make your full house in order to come out ahead by calling the 2nd betting round raise, and that’s not figuring the possibility of a total disaster if Villain has a set of aces rather than the Broadway.

Bottom line: It seems as though Hero should fold to the flop raise. Tough fold, however.

Buzz

[Heron]

[ QUOTE ]
Going back to the flop, where, if we put Villain on the Broadway (with KTXY), we know the whereabouts of 9 cards (the four cards in Hero's hand, the three flop cards, and the king-ten in MP's hand, 52-9 = 43. There are 43 cards whose whereabouts are unknown, including 6 outs for Hero. On the 37 times Hero lose, he loses a sub-total of 37*1.5 = <font color="red">-55.5</font> big bets.
And on the 6 times Hero wins, he wins a sub-total of 6*7.5 = 45 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero also has 3 outs (K) to a split. Hence he loses only 34 times and gets 3 times half of the dead money already in the pot. IMO that might be enough to make the call correct.

[Little Wing]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
I'm in early position with A Q J T (suits don't matter)

Hi Little Wing - Suits matter to me. They matter a lot. I’m almost certainly folding AQJT from early position unless the ace is suited to one (or two) other card(s)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Buzz. By "suits don't matter", I meant that they didn't matter in that there wasn't a possibility of a flush in the hand after the flop. My actual hand was A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I’ll review this result tomorrow when I’m fresher and post a correction if needed. (But I don't think I'm wrong).

[/ QUOTE ]I was wrong. I neglected to count the three missing kings (assuming we put MP on KTXY for this betting) as outs for splitting the pot.

Thanks, Heron, for pointing out my error.

Going back to the flop, where, if we put Villain on the Broadway (with KTXY), we know the whereabouts of 9 cards (the four cards in Hero's hand, the three flop cards, and the king-ten in MP's hand, 52-9 = 43. There are 43 cards whose whereabouts are unknown, including 6 scoop outs for Hero and 3 split outs for Hero.

• On the 6 times Hero scoops, he wins a sub-total of
6*7.5 = +45 big bets.
• On the 34 times Hero loses, he loses a sub-total of 34*1.5 = -51 big bets.
• On the 3 times Hero splits, he wins a sub total of
3*2.5 = +7.5 big bets.

+45-51+7.5 = +1.5 big bets. And that's for 43 tries. e.v. = +1.5/43 big bets

Thus, although it is close, if MP has a Broadway, it does turn out that Hero has a positive e.v. here.

Would MP bet this way with anything other than a Broadway or a set of aces? Would he bet this way with the same pairs as Hero? I don't know. If we factor in a set of aces as a possibility for MP, then Hero's e.v. drops to +1.3/43 big bets.

Bottom line: Hero has favorable odds to call MP's raise on the second betting round.

Thanks again for the correction, Heron.

Buzz

[fishyak]

As a live player, I need rules of thumb. O/8 is slow enough and if I try to do the math before I play... well that might take 3 dealer changes per calculation!

We get two pair draws to the full house against made straights and flushes all the time. My general rule is to fold here, not enough outs. But I have wondered about 3 pair situations, 50% more outs. And, as Heron pointed out, sometimes there are backdoor possibilities as well.

So is my rule of thumb appropriate? Two pair against made straights and flushes, fold it even for one bet before the river card? For 3 pair though, look more closely and consider calling if there are backdoors or a really big pot?

[sternroolz]

[ QUOTE ]
As a live player, I need rules of thumb. O/8 is slow enough and if I try to do the math before I play... well that might take 3 dealer changes per calculation!

We get two pair draws to the full house against made straights and flushes all the time. My general rule is to fold here, not enough outs. But I have wondered about 3 pair situations, 50% more outs. And, as Heron pointed out, sometimes there are backdoor possibilities as well.

So is my rule of thumb appropriate? Two pair against made straights and flushes, fold it even for one bet before the river card? For 3 pair though, look more closely and consider calling if there are backdoors or a really big pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair = four outs assuming you are live(ie you cannot put someone else on the same hand). Also assuming there is no low redraw if you hit. BTW, I absolutley hate drawing on two pair that is not top two in a live loose game(is there any other you would want to play in?) So if you are getting 11:1 money...both immediate and implied, then your call is worth it.

For instance, suppose 8 to the flop and you hold top two on a KQ9 board. One bet to you and a few calls. You close the action or know that the bet will not be raised. Why not call here? Esp if others will call your boat down once their str8 is BBQ.

Of course backdoor draws make playing here more appealing as well as if you had say AJ or A10 in your hand as well.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
As a live player, I need rules of thumb.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Fishyak - Me too.

[ QUOTE ]
We get two pair draws to the full house against made straights and flushes all the time. My general rule is to fold here, not enough outs.

[/ QUOTE ]By “here” do you mean immediately after the flop or after the turn?

After the turn, when you put an opponent on a made flush or straight, if you only have 4 outs, the odds against you rivering a winner are about 10 to 1. And if you don’t make your full house, you’re sitting there on the last betting round with your two pairs wondering if the villain is overplaying a worse hand than yours (or bluffing) or not. We know that when the board enables a flush or straight we should have a flush or straight to be in the hand, and maybe the nut flush or straight at that. However, some of our opponents either do not seem to recognize that truth, or want to drive us out of the pot unless we have the absolute stone cold nuts.

An aggressive opponent who knows the game of Omaha-8 well and who plays poker well and shifts gears often can make it tough for us. I think we would do well to use that same approach, but it’s like walking along the ridge of a peaked roof. You don’t want to fall over one side or the other.

So what do we do if facing a bet, when a flush or straight has been enabled, and we are holding two pairs on the turn?

There isn’t any general rule, so far as I know. I like your idea of having a general rule, but there isn’t one. Having a general rule would be nice, but there simply isn’t one. I’d rather avoid coping with holding two pairs on the river when the board enables a flush or straight, unless I also have the nut low. But if you get out of the hand every time somebody bets, you’re going to get a lot of bluffs (or poor bets) thrown at you, and then it’s even harder to cope.

I can avoid the situation somewhat by simply not playing anything but the top two pairs on the flop, unless I also have other good draws or a made good low.

Assuming Hero holds something like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and the flop is something like
K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Jack-ten or ten-jack on the turn/river is unlikely (16/990), but a king or queen has a probability of 182/990. Thus almost one time out of five (hand odds are about 4.44 to 1 against), Hero figures to make quads or the nut full house on either the turn or the river.

However, this is very misleading unless Hero goes all-in on the second betting round, because if Hero completely misses on the turn, for example with a six on the turn, then Hero is going to re-assess for the river. And then the odds against Hero making a full house on the river will be 40 to 4 against, or about 10 to 1 against.

So I think we have to consider calling the two bets (on the second betting round and third betting round) as separate entities, kind of like buying a lottery ticket on two successive days, Monday and then again on Tuesday if you miss on Monday.

On the second betting round, the odds Hero will make a full house/quads on the turn alone are 41 to 4, or about 10.25 to 1 against. So there will have to be 20.5 small bets (10.25 big bets) in the pot at the showdown if Hero makes his full house on the turn in order for Hero to justify calling a bet on the second betting round. <ul type="square">(Note that betting yourself is very much different from calling.

When you bet yourself, if nobody else actually has the flush or straight, or maybe even in they have a baby flush or a non-nut straight, your opponents may all fold to your bet. If you bet two pairs when a flush or straight is possible, your bet amounts to a semi-bluff and all the good things that go along with semi-bluffs apply.

However, when you call a bet, it should be because you either are getting favorable odds to call or you think the bet is a bluff, a semi-bluff, or simply a poor bet. The benefits of semi bluffing do not apply.)[/list]Then on the third betting round, assuming Hero misses on the turn, the odds Hero will make a full house/quads on the river are 40 to 4, or about 10 to 1 against. There will have to be 10 big bets in the pot at the showdown if Hero makes his full house on the river in order for Hero to justify calling a bet on the third betting round.

Thus projecting ahead and generalizing, if Hero reads whoever bets a flop for a flush or straight, and plans to fold if he doesn’t make a full house or quads, there will have to be at least 10.25 big bets in the pot at the showdown, in order for Hero to call a single small bet on the second betting round. In a 3/6 game, that amounts to a little better than sixty bucks. In a 4/8 game, that amounts to a little better than eighty bucks. If the kill is in effect, those amounts double.

Will Hero be able to collect that much when the board pairs on the turn? I think generally not, but it depends on how well Hero’s opponents play.

So as a general rule, I think Hero should bet with top two pairs, as a semi-bluff, even though a flush or straight (or straight flush) is already possible. However, the danger of any two pairs other than “top two” losing to a higher full house, added to the danger of losing to a flush or straight should generally cause Hero to draw the line at top two pairs, if that is all the hand has going for it.

[ QUOTE ]
We get two pair draws to the full house against made straights and flushes all the time. My general rule is to fold here, not enough outs.

[/ QUOTE ]That doesn’t seem like a bad rule. However, I think you miss some opportunities to out-play your opponents. In addition, if you sometimes bet two pairs here as a semi-bluff, it will make it more difficult for your opponents to put you on the nuts when you do bet the nuts.

But I think it’s important that you be the one initiating the bet, rather than just calling. Depends on who is betting and on your other opponents, I suppose, and also on the possibility of a split pot due to low.

[ QUOTE ]
But I have wondered about 3 pair situations

[/ QUOTE ]Me too. The extra two outs considerably increase your chances. Projecting ahead to the third betting round, assuming you miss on the turn, you just need 38/6 or seven big bets from what is already in the pot plus what your opponents will henceforth contribute in the high portion of the pot at the showdown, instead of ten.

[ QUOTE ]
So is my rule of thumb appropriate? Two pair against made straights and flushes, fold it even for one bet before the river card? For 3 pair though, look more closely and consider calling if there are backdoors or a really big pot?

[/ QUOTE ]I don’t think what to do with two or three pairs is quite that simple or easy, but your rule of thumb seems an all right place to start.

Buzz