2/4: Can I value push river?

oyvindgee · #1 03-04-2007, 07:17 AM

Villain is 15/4 over 125 hands. This is such a retarded way to play diamonds and I think a set raises somewhere. Looks a lot like a jack and for all I know, he could call with it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($406.50)
MP ($1022.63)
CO ($380)
Button ($117.40)
SB ($393.40)
BB ($348.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, CO calls $16, 2 folds, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38, CO folds, BB calls $38.

Turn: ($126) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $80, BB calls $80.

River: ($286) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $286

ArturiusX · #2 03-04-2007, 08:30 AM

Ive seen people play 55 this way.

jfish · #3 03-04-2007, 08:32 AM

knowing his wtsd would be great. if hes as nitty as he seems, shoving seems really bad. who knows, you might be able to get away with a $100 bet.

oyvindgee · #4 03-04-2007, 08:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
knowing his wtsd would be great. if hes as nitty as he seems, shoving seems really bad. who knows, you might be able to get away with a $100 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought wtsd was pretty meaningless over so few hands.

mike0292 · #5 03-04-2007, 02:03 PM

push it to the limit

illuminati · #6 03-04-2007, 02:07 PM

I think a 15/4 may fold a decent J on the turn. You would expect a raise somewhere from a set, but most don't play well/rationally/optimally. What hands had he shown down prior to this?

Darkfolder · #7 03-04-2007, 02:22 PM

Check

oyvindgee · #8 03-04-2007, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What hands had he shown down prior to this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea

Better Than U · #9 03-04-2007, 02:56 PM

Did he actually check on the iver? If he did, push it to the maximum limit.

citanul · #10 03-04-2007, 03:19 PM

so if you push:

i don't think anything that beats QQ folds, right? so when he gets called he has to win 50% of the time? i don't think that happens. i think you see a lot of poorly played diamonds, set, or janky 2 pair when you get called. (though you could also see kk or aa.) i think i'd like a semi-gross underbet here, something that a jack could call, though feel bad about it. something in the $100 to $150 range maybe. mostly because we have no idea what he has, and this guy sounds very unlikely to checkraise bluff rivers.