$16: Bubble AQ and short, and someone else even shorter...

Dr_Jeckyl_00 · #1 03-03-2007, 12:32 AM

I don't remember the specifics exactly, but it went something like:

blinds are 300/600

bb (7000)
sb (1200) HERO
btn (400)
utg (4000)

folded to hero in sb w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

fold or shove?

tafokints · #2 03-03-2007, 12:41 AM

I absolutely abhor these situations because btn has still 3 chances to double up and if he double's up on his blind, the pressure is shifted onto you to double up. Hmm, I'm not sure of the ICM #s here but I'm assuming BB will call any 2( as in he's decent), so I lean towards a fold? But it could go either way i think

donkasaurus rex · #3 03-03-2007, 02:25 AM

wow, i just posted something about this a minute ago. its a tough spot... here with the BB's stack, i think a fold is the +EV play by far.

fluorescenthippo · #4 03-03-2007, 02:33 AM

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
nvm thats a typo

my instinct is that its a clear push
sngpt backs this up a lot

i used a 651 chip button but its enough of an edge that its not close.

push, game over

Shillx · #5 03-03-2007, 03:19 AM

According to ICM (no antes)

Fold = 17.7%
Push & Win = 26%

I don't necessarily trust ICM in this spot but that is something to consider*. If he always calls, you need about 68% equity to shove.

* - IMO it overvalues pushing. With antes it seems pretty close though.

fluorescenthippo · #6 03-03-2007, 03:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
According to ICM (no antes)

Fold = 17.7%
Push & Win = 26%

I don't necessarily trust ICM in this spot but that is something to consider*. If he always calls, you need about 68% equity to shove.

* - IMO it overvalues pushing. With antes it seems pretty close though.

[/ QUOTE ]

good thing its a $16 sng and he doesnt call more than 90%