Is this push good? (Can I let 77-TT fold here often enough?)

[DonKaleone]

Hi, villain is 22/7/2.4 over 1242 hands

Doesn't seem donkish postflop, but as stats indicate has a limp/calling leak preflop (also open limping CO and BTN). Quite odd for a multitabling reg. if you ask me, but apparantly it's paying off for him.

Villain perceives me as aggro, but I've shown goods in showdown, so I guess I have some credit. He's made a check/raise earlier to just 16, so this higher C/R surprised me a little.

My questions are:
- Should I fold, call or push here? Personally I don't really like calling, as you're probably seeing just one card then.
- Can I make an mid range overpair (77-TT) fold here often enough by felting?

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $52.30
BTN: $66.40
SB: $101.8
BB: $109.25
UTG: $433.10
Hero (MP): $185

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $3, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $27</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $181.50</font>

[wrschultz]

I think this hand is played well... Most 22/7s aren't felting 77-TT here, and I think he would re-raise JJ-AA preflop... Nice hand.

[Womble]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

54,450 games 0.005 secs 10,890,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 4h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.795% 37.66% 02.14% 20504 1164.50 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 60.205% 58.07% 02.14% 31617 1164.50 { QQ-33, A6s-A5s, JTs }


---


Dont know what his range is here. I guessed he folds out all SCs from the blinds since he seems pretty tight (any idea on blind play?) Also added in some JTs for bluffs that he may do this with (probably wont get there PF thought with it)

Not a bad play IF he can fold anything. He has to be able to fold PP some of the time but if he does:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

27,720 games 0.005 secs 5,544,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 4h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.310% 33.74% 02.56% 9354 711.00 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 63.690% 61.13% 02.56% 16944 711.00 { QQ-TT, 66-33 }


Which basically measn your folding out a lot of his range without really affecting your chances

[cs3]

ya, 77-TT fold a lot here, but i dont think thats a signifigant part of his ch/r'ing range. hes way more likely to ch/r with sets, QQ+, and air. with slight over pairs hes much better off ch/calling on such a dry flop. why would villain turn his hand into basically a bluff?

fold to his ch/r.

[Arito]

Wouldn't he raise from the SB with QQ+? I think the only hands he calls this with are the sets, which are still pretty likely. And I do think that most small overpair raise this flop.

The problem is that the villain has already put in a third of his stack. Tricky spot... With so much already invested he might just decide to call with a small overpair...

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't he raise from the SB with QQ+? I think the only hands he calls this with are the sets, which are still pretty likely. And I do think that most small overpair raise this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

not sure if villain always 3 bets QQ+ from the blinds, but at 22/7 hes way passive pf over a pretty signifigant sample. so i would say he sometimes (like a t least 1/3 of the time) flat calls pf.
if he did ch/r with a big over pair hes definietly not folding.
why is a ch/r with 88 any good here? i just dont think hes doing it often enough.


fwiw this is a flop that i check behind fairly often rather than c-bet.

[DonKaleone]

Thanks for the advice, I think the check behind on the flop is a very good suggestion. I also like the Poker Stove example very much, I really should use that more.

For you result oriented donks out there, villain actually held a rather surprising 43 of clubs, instacalled my all-in and it held up.