nl 100 KK analyze my hand

[IsaacAsimov]

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
MP: $92.70
CO: $187.40
BTN: $95.50
Hero (SB): $104
BB: $127.55
UTG: $159.35

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.50</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $9

<font color="black">Flop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($26, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, BTN calls $18

<font color="black">Turn:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($62, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">River:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($62, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $38</font>, Hero...

Villain is unknown, I have no idea how he plays. I think this is a weird spot. I rr preflop and get called, I make a standard bet after rring and get called. Turn comes Q, if I bet here I am pretty much commited to the pot and it could be easy for villain to get away from lesser hands, so I decide to check raise all-in.
Villain checks the turn and the river comes a jack. I am not really worried about 88,33 or the flush. I am having a tought time putting villain on a range since he is unknown, so I think about the possible holdings he could have.
I think he could have TT,QQ, JJ and AK or complete air here. I can't see him having AQ,AJ, it's possible he holds AA and was slowplaying it. Although this hand should be pretty straightforward, I actually think this is a tough spot against unknown.
What is our move?

[MasterLJ]

Raise more pre, bet more on the flop, bet the turn looking to get it AI.

As played, I probably call there, it's very close. It's generally 99 or else something you beat... maybe it's QJ sometimes.

[IsaacAsimov]

@ MasterLJ

Pfr was 1 BB more than pot, flop bet was more than 2/3 pot (although I usually bet 3/4 there, I don't think my bet size was that small).
The thing about rdm PP's is that villain would have made a bad call preflop imo, as he isn't really getting implied odds to call profitably there and if he isn't only calling for set value then he'd have to be willing to play a big pot without knowing where he stands.
QJ is possible, but is also one of the less likely holdings imo, so I am not worried about it in this spot.

[killphilNI]

You need to be fairly confident he's going to bet to attempt a crai so without reads just bet the turn. Difficult river decision against an unknown, I think a fold is better than a call.

[IsaacAsimov]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to be fairly confident he's going to bet to attempt a crai so without reads just bet the turn. Difficult river decision against an unknown, I think a fold is better than a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah good point there. I think MasterLJ was implying the same thing.

[giant sand]

As played I'd probably call, but I would have bet the turn.

[Better Than U]

bet the turn, fold the river.

[Mossberg]

As others have said, I think it's best to bet this turn. It's quite possible that the Q gave him a pair+draw hand, or improved QJ or whatever. I wouldn't be surprised to see him even pay you off with AT.

River is an easy fold IMO.

[IsaacAsimov]

Do you guys really think that the average villain is floating QJ here?

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
It's generally 99 or else something you beat

[/ QUOTE ]

89TJQ

I fold river because i think it is T9 or JT a fair amount. I think QJ is pretty unlikely esp since he checked turn, but JT and T9 would be somewhat scared of the Q.