Do you fold this river?

snikeris · #1 02-28-2007, 12:33 PM

Villain was 82/18/3.67 after 17 hands. Do you fold this river? I mean he could easily have something like AK thats gone UI. 1 in 10 chance he's bluffing?

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO folds.

Turn: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

JerBear77 · #2 02-28-2007, 12:35 PM

w/o looking no

After: Fold Turn, not enough in the middle and a FD taints the hell out of your hand. Not sure if i like the limp preflop either w/ only one guy in.

DrModern · #3 02-28-2007, 12:37 PM

Yes. Your read is on too small a sample size to say anything substantive about villain and your hand can only bluff-stop.

mmctrab · #4 02-28-2007, 12:54 PM

*grunch*

I'd fold the turn. As played I'd fold the river for sure.

Bona · #5 02-28-2007, 01:12 PM

Condidering position and with no reads on what might happen behind I probably fold this preflop.

As played I fold the turn.

Fold the river.

nerdking · #6 02-28-2007, 01:23 PM

i'm going to follow the crowd and reiterate that sample size is too small for reads.

fold turn.

Faluzure · #7 02-28-2007, 01:23 PM

I fold preflop. I fold the flop. I fold the turn. As played, I probably call the river. 11 to 1 that the villain has AK AJ AT and any suited variation with spades, maybe some weaker hands too. Also as played, I think the place to fold is definitely the turn. You are hoping for a non spade 3...an Ace probably costs you money, and 4 probably costs money (we'll see I guess if Hero mucks after the call). I don't expect to win on the river often, but I think more than 1 in 12.

OrigamiSensei · #8 02-28-2007, 02:34 PM

OP knew the looseness of the table, thus the pre-flop limp was fine.

Flop call is thin but isn't terrible with the gutshot and the BDFD. However, you're risking that one of the people behind you will raise in which case your odds are fairly well blown. Also, your outs are potentially cut down by the flush draw out there. Personally, I think I'd have folded the flop.

On the turn your back door flush draw is blown and the odds are no longer with you. Fold.

As played on the river there's not enough chance he's bluffing to pay off. Even maniacs don't often donk into a full field three times on a pure bluff. Fold.

Zeldark · #9 02-28-2007, 02:42 PM

PF is fine.
Flop is borderline.
Turn is a fold.
You shouldn't of seen the river. And yes to fold.

Shillx · #10 02-28-2007, 02:55 PM

You played it fine. Fold the turn getting 9:1 eh? Fold the river when he probably bets every street no matter what? You might even have > 50% equity on the river but there is no way you are more then even a 2:1 dog! Fold getting 11:1!!! You guys are frickin nits