Scrabble vs. Poker - Luck Factor

[RGL]

Chess and Scrabble Tournies and games for cash are both legal and offered online.

In chess, there is absolutely no role for chance other than the skill of the opponent you are matched against.

In Scrabble, however, much can depend on the tiles you draw at any particular time. This seems to an injection of luck into the game, maybe comparable in some ways to drawing in poker. Yet Scrabble tournies are legal, poker aren't.

What would you estimate the "luck quotient" is in Scrabble vs. Hold'em? Probably lower, but how much? My guess, and it's strictly a guess, is 70/30 luck/skill in Hold'em, and 30/70 luck skill in Scrabble.

[sandman-54]

Wow, I never really thought of that before. It seems like a fair assessment to me though.

[Rolon]

I'm not sure I'd say its as high as 30. I think on a given day, pro-Scrabble players will beat the average joe 99/100 times whereas in poker, us pros might only win 70-90 times. Just as in poker, over the long run exspecially, scrabble is all skill.

[winterGT]

What does 70/30 luck/skill mean exactly? In my experience and opinion, in poker in the short term, variance can be insane. But when you look at the long term, results are often very consistent with skill.

[Abbaddabba]

There isnt a universal answer. The key question left unanswered is the relative skill level of opponents. Neither can you figure out the ratio of skill:luck in poker without knowing the difference in skill.

But even if you did manage that, you'd need to figure out what unit you're comparing.

If you compare 1 hand of hold em to 1 game of scrabble, it's not even close. A great player averages a small fraction of a bet per hand in typical game conditions. An exceptional scrabble player beats the lesser player (i would guess) the vast majority of the time.

[SplawnDarts]

Food for thought: if you can't beat the best publicly available computer scrabble and chess players, you have no business playing online as it's highly likely that's what the other guy is running.

Just a PSA before someone puts their bankroll at risk.