UFC 68

[dixieflatline]

For those of you that still have pinny accounts:

Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: UFC Heavyweight Championship
Sat 3/3 Tim Sylvia vs Randy Couture
08:30 PM 41 Tim Sylvia -266
42 Randy Couture +246
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: Welterweights
Sat 3/3 Matt Hughes vs Chris Lytle
08:00 PM 51 Matt Hughes -601
52 Chris Lytle +541

Not sure where these started but right now I am thinking there is some EV on the Hughes. Not sure what to think about Timmay and Randy. I hate Tim so much that it is hard for me to be objective.

[wiper]

what was the rich franklin line, i'm wondering??

my girlfriend and i will be down in columbus to cheer the ohio boy on...franklin is her favorite, tickets weren't THAT bad, it's only a 2 1/2 hour drive, and we both wanted to drink $6 beers and see first hand how his nose has healed!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[trixtrix]

-520

[wiper]

my plan was to make 1 bet, where if i won, i'd cover the price of the tickets...

looks like it's gonna be timmay at this point, as -520 and -601 are pretty high for me to be risking enough to cover what i'm trying to cover...

[recipro]

[ QUOTE ]
my plan was to make 1 bet, where if i won, i'd cover the price of the tickets...

looks like it's gonna be timmay at this point, as -520 and -601 are pretty high for me to be risking enough to cover what i'm trying to cover...

[/ QUOTE ]

Odds for Franklin are -446 on Pinny, if that helps. Also -480 on Matchbook, if you are American.

[Dark Helmet]

FYI the rest of the odds from Pinny are
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: Light Heavyweights
Sat 3/3 Renato Sobral vs Jason Lambert
07:00 PM 65 Renato Sobral -401
66 Jason Lambert +361
Sat 3/3 Matt Hamill vs Rex Holman
05:00 PM 67 Matt Hamill -356
68 Rex Holman +326
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: Lightweights
Sat 3/3 Gleison Tibau vs Jason Dent
05:00 PM 71 Gleison Tibau -236
72 Jason Dent +216
Sat 3/3 Jamie Varner vs Jason Gilliam
05:00 PM 73 Jamie Varner -456
74 Jason Gilliam +406
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: Middleweights
Sat 3/3 Martin Kampmann vs Drew McFedries
07:30 PM 61 Martin Kampmann -261
62 Drew McFedries +241
Sat 3/3 Rich Franklin vs Jason MacDonald
07:30 PM 63 Rich Franklin -446
64 Jason MacDonald +406
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: UFC Heavyweight Championship
Sat 3/3 Tim Sylvia vs Randy Couture
08:30 PM 41 Tim Sylvia -266
42 Randy Couture +246
Ultimate Fighting Championship 68: Welterweights
Sat 3/3 Matt Hughes vs Chris Lytle
08:00 PM 51 Matt Hughes -601
52 Chris Lytle +541
Sat 3/3 Jon Fitch vs Luigi Fioravanti
05:00 PM 69 Jon Fitch -301
70 Luigi Fioravanti +271


Arrg. I dont see many LARGE values here. WTF are MMA markets becoming accurate all of a sudden?

I have some $$$ on Slyvia, although I hate his guts as well. I'm kind of surprised the franklin odds are so lopsided, considering macdonalds recent wins and Franklin's devastating loss to silva. I don't think its off, but I was hoping it would open closer, so I could bet it.

What plays are people considering?

[rush66]

Im scared and still trying to recover from my pride losses.

[Dark Helmet]

Im glad I stayed out of that mayhem last weekend.

[recipro]

[ QUOTE ]
What plays are people considering?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm contemplating betting against Hamill. He is probably a better wrestler than Hamill (division I vs division III), and Hamill has not looked very solid in general in his fights I've seen. There must be some value getting better than +300 there.

Unsure if I will pull the trigger or not. Thoughts?

[csuf_gambl0o0r]

im betting the house on Sylvia. big tim at -266 is such an insane deal, way too good to pass up. Oppurunities like this don't come too often, about once in a lifetime. This is guranteed money, the easiest money you'll ever make in your life. Randy has no chance of winning. If Monson and Ricco couldn't do anything with Tim then Randy certainly won't be able to. And he certainly can't outstrike him. Plus Randy is 44 now. This is such a sure thing it's not even funny. It's like AA vs. KK all in preflop.

Coincidentally, ill be in Vegas this weekend so i can put str8 bets at the sportsbook. I'm hoping the last second hyping of Couture will move the lines and give me even better odds on Tim.