Tuesday CBB plays

[dmoney416]

Yesterday: 1-1

Not much to brag about but a welcome day with a small profit.

Tonight:

Oklahoma St -2 over Kansas St. (1.5 units)

This is between a regular play and a large play for me. The reason it is not a large play is that I missed the best line. Let me say that I was shocked at this line. I will also be shocked if Ok. St ends up losing this game outright.

Some say that Kansas St. needs this game more. I disagree as Ok. St is out with a loss here IMO. Kansas St. is on the fence, but the schedule ends favorably for them as they go home after this game to play an Oklahoma team that has struggled on the road. A win there (even with a loss tonight) along with a respectable showing in the conf. tourney should easily get them in. Ok. St must win this, then they have the oppurtunity to get a much needed road win @Baylor. They would then have to make a conf. tourney run.

Some say that Oklahoma St. is a fraud. This may be so, but they are still 14-2 at home and forced to be reckoned with at Gallagher-Iba. However, I am also of the opinion that Kansas St. is not exactly all that they are cracked up to be. They do have nice wins against USC, @Texas, and I will give them credit for a solid win @Missouri. However, I think that their 9-5 conference record is the product of a softer conference schedule. The nine wins are Colorado (twice), Nebraska (at home), Iowa St. (twice), Missouri (twice), Texas (on the road), and Baylor (at home). Besides @Texas and possibly @Missouri, there are not any overly impressive wins there. I am simply not sold on this team yet.

Enough of opinion, let us look at stats. Kansas St. has the advantage on defense, but Ok. St has the advantage on offense across the board. Kansas St seems to have the advantage in rebounding margin as they have a +3.2 margin compared to Ok. St's +1.6 (more on this later). Kansas St. is outscored by an average of four on the road, and they allow opponents to shoot 45.6% from the field (compared to 41.4% overall) and 34% from three (compared to 28.5% overall). In addition, the Wildcats seem to struggle in the trenches on the road, as they are outrebounded by an average of 1.2 a game on the road. Looking at Kansas St's last four road games, they have been outrebounded in each game except one:

@Texas: 36-38
@Kansas: 24-46
@Nebraska: 30-30 (Nebraska is a poor rebounding team and averages a -4 margin)
@Colorado: 26-34

Lastly, throw in the intangibles. Senior night for Boggan and Monds, sheer desperation for the Cowboys, and I think you have the formula for a horrendous spot for Kansas St. Oklahoma must win or they are gone from the NCAAs for sure (assuming they don't win the conf. tourney).

Oklahoma St. 72
Kansas St. 61


Looking at a couple others for later. I missed the good AF and Utah line, so I have to reevaluate and see if they are worth a bet. Questions and comments welcome. GL to all tonight.

[BooNaNy]

[ QUOTE ]
I missed the good AF and Utah line, so I have to reevaluate and see if they are worth a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like Oklahoma St. also. What do you mean by you missed the good AF and Utah lines? I got it at -5.5 and +3.

[wiper]

ok. state looks good...

good hit on akron last night too! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[dmoney416]

Boo, AF opened at -4 and Utah opened at +4 I believe. Also, AF is -6 at my book unfortunately. Looking to see if I can get Utah at 3.5 and AF at 5.5. I may also tease the two games.

wiper, thanks. Unfortunately did not play the Akron game. Lost on Idaho St (small) and won on the G-town/Cuse under.

[dmoney416]

Adding:

Michigan +1
Detroit +3 (smaller play)
Teaser - Air Force -1.5/Utah +7.5 (smaller play)

No write-ups as we are close to gametime, but if you would like the logic behind the play, please let me know.