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#1
02-27-2007, 03:14 PM
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10NL - KK overpair - all-in decision on the flop
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> <font color="#C00000">Button ($14.15)</font> SB ($10.35) BB ($5) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($27.05)</font> MP ($33.25) CO ($10.30) Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.40, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: ($0.95) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $13.75</font>,<font color="red"> Hero </font> [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Opponent is 33/16/3 (65 hands) Is it correct to push size of a buy-in into pot here with only an overpair? What do you think? 
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#6
02-27-2007, 04:00 PM
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Re: 10NL - KK overpair - all-in decision on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
At NL10 I call this all day! Villain cold have AJ,KJ,JQ,9Qs,KQ Some times he will have TJ, but i think call here is +EV. [/ QUOTE ]Yikes. No way. This is either JJ, TT, or JT. Probably not JT. This guy is only VPIP of 33 so he's loose but not super loose. You've got 2 outs. Fold and wait for a better spot. [edit]And bet more on the flop. That .50 bet is weak.
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#7
02-27-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: 10NL - KK overpair - all-in decision on the flop
This one is call I think.
I'd put him on AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,55,JTs,or KQ. Pocket pairs have 6 possible ways of being dealt and non pairs have 16. You also have to consider the liklihood that the villain took this line with any of the given hands. Lets look at them. Hand Combos %he takes line = effective card combos AA 6 33% = 2 KK 1 33% ~=0 QQ 6 33% =3 JJ 3 100% = 3 TT 3 100% = 3 55 3 100% = 3 JTs 2 100% = 2 AJ 12 33% = 4 KQ 8 25% = 2 Total effective hands = 22 Hands you beat = 3+4+2 = 9 Approximate equity against these hands =%80 Hands that beat you = 13 Approximate equity against these hands =10% Total equity = (1/22)*(9*.8+13*.1) = .386 You are laying $9.25 to win ($19.20)*.95 = $18.24 Your pot odds are 18.24:9.45 = 1.97:1 so your break even percentage is 1/2.97 = 33.6% Since your equity is plenty better than your break even percentage, you've got to call. Note, if you think he'd ever be making this play for value with KJ, QJ then it's a trivial call. Also if you think he'd never be here with AJ then it's a fold.
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#9
02-27-2007, 04:25 PM
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Re: 10NL - KK overpair - all-in decision on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting analysis. But didn't you count 1 QQ too many? After looking at the pot odds it seems closer than I thought [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for the compliment. Agreed on messing up the QQ. Only should have been two QQ. After fixing the calculation, the equtiy is 36.7%, but it still looks like a call.
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