NLHTP#7 Bet Sizing for Information & Playing the Nuts on the River

[1p0kerboy]

Someone want to write up a chapter summary?

[GoRedBirds]

Thanks, pokerboy. I too am lazy today and haven't read this section in a little while. I'll reread after work and if it's not up then, then I'll do it.

[LearningCurve]

Working on it...

[LearningCurve]

Hopefully I'm following PB's format closely enough...

Bet Sizing for Information

This chapter begins by discussing the idea of betting for information. The authors say that valuable information:

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Is specific and accurate.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Allows you to make more profitable decisions now or in the future.


They explain that getting valuable information is not always easy in poker, although they demonstrate the price we should be willing to pay can be mathematically determined.

In NLHE the usefulness of information can be huge as it can prevent us from losing our entire stack. Larger bets may be more beneficial than smaller ones in gaining useful information from villains.

The chapter ends by cautioning us to be selective in deciding which circumstances, villains, and hands warrant a bet for information.


Playing the Nuts on the River

This chapter has two main points:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Making large bets may be profitable when you have the nuts and your opponent may be weak or "sandbagging."

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Very large, all-in type bets or raises are a good choice against strong villains or when your "nut" hand is well disguised.

Basically, we need to try to balance the small, reasonable river bets with the large all-ins depending upon circumstances. Villains who might be skeptical of large bets may actually be the best candidates to use them against.

[1p0kerboy]

Great post LC!!!

As far as the betting for information. I think it's important to realize that all actions (bets,raises,and calls) give out information. What I think Sklansky is touching on in this chapter are rare instances in which we might alter what our normal bet amount would be to get more information. In other words, changing our "optimal" bet size might be slightly less EV but the value of the information we obtain is worth what we give up for it.

[1p0kerboy]

Playing the Nuts on the River

Many players don't lay down good hands on the river. Even when they think they should.

Take advantage! When you have the nuts (or near nuts) make that extra large bet or raise.

Here is a hand I played today that illustrates this example.

[LearningCurve]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing the Nuts on the River

Many players don't lay down good hands on the river. Even when they think they should.

Take advantage! When you have the nuts (or near nuts) make that extra large bet or raise.

Here is a hand I played today that illustrates this example.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point. I'm actually one of those players! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I have a hard time folding when I only have to call 1 time in x to make my call worthwhile. So long as the ratio between the pot and my call is somewhat reasonable, I'm having a hard time walking away even when I'm pretty sure villain probably has "it."

Think I need to pop over to the March Goals Thread and make a post resolving not to do this anymore! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[CLB]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing the Nuts on the River

Many players don't lay down good hands on the river. Even when they think they should.

Take advantage! When you have the nuts (or near nuts) make that extra large bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but in my limited experience it may be less true as you move up in limits. Pushing with the nuts on the river at 25NL was a goldmine...I quickly realized that those bets don't get called nearly as often at 50NL. As DS/EM point out, you've got to make an evaluation of your opponenents hand before you go this route. You're leaving a lot of money on the table if you blow your opponents off of the mediocre hands that they might call a smaller bet with.

Knowing when to make the big bet and when to keep it reasonable is a very valuable skill to have. It's definitely an area of my game that could use some work...a lot of times I'll get to showdown on a particular hand, realize that my opponent would have called a significantly larger bet, and then realize that I should have known that before I bet based on the previous action in the hand. If I run into this situation in the near future I'll post the hand here...I think a lot of players could probably stand to improve this aspect of their game.

[Jurrr]

Aba had once posted that betting/raising for information against good players (especially?) OOP was bad.

I think Battletoad also dismisses betting/raising for information.

E.g., you are against an aggressive villain in position in a limped pot with a good, but not great hand (e.g., TPGK). He bets flop. If you call he will definitely bet turn and river with his strong hands and quite often bluff turn and river with his weak hands as well. If you raise he will fold his weak hands and raise/stop-and-go his strong hands so you can get away.

How often should he have a weak hand and how often should he be bluffing with it in order for your raise for information be profitable?

If the pot is 2BB, he bets 2BB on the flop and we raise 8BB and he folds we invest 8BB to win 12BB. If the pot is 2BB on the flop, 6BB on the turn, 15BB on the river and finally 36BB then we have invested 17BB to win 36BB.

Obv. if he never has anything but always bluffs then you call him down and win every time. Raising for information is pure spew in that case.

I personally cannot come up with a probability distribution that shows raising for information as profitable, but then I don't have the book with me ATM and Sklansky did provide it.

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]

Knowing when to make the big bet and when to keep it reasonable is a very valuable skill to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

A significant overbet is usually best when your opponent has shown strength.