Ax-suited a loser in loose limit games?

[CardSharkGames]

This is a lengthy post of analysis which seems to indicate that playing Ax-suited (where x is less than Ten) is not profitable in loose limit games. For ease of calculations, $1/$2 limit is assumed.

Say that you play Ax-suited 1000 times unraised. You flop a flush draw about 120 times.

The cost of seeing the 880 flops with no draws = $880.

The 120 times you flop a flush draw, you will make a flush by the River about 40 times.

The cost of the 80 times you see the River with no flush = $320 ($1 preflop + $1 flop + $2 turn = $4 * 80 = $320)

Your total cost of missing the flush = 880 + 320 = $1200.

Just to break even, the 40 times you make a flush, you must make $1200, or $30 of other people's money per pot -- on *average*.

It is very hard to get $30 into a pot even once. If 6 people besides you limp preflop, that is $6. If the flop is raised and 4 people stay, that is $8. If all 4 call the Turn, that is $8 more. If 2 call the River, that is $4, for a total of $26. If you can check-raise the River, which you will not always be in position to do, you can get another $4 and win the required $30, but this is close to a maximum, not an average.

A more reasonable, but still somewhat optimistic average would be $20. Six callers preflop, 4 callers on the flop, 3 on the Turn, and 2 on the River totals $20. But $20 times 40 flushes made is only $800 versus a total cost of $1200 for a $400 loss.

Another source of income are hands which miss the flush but make top pair, two pair, trips or better.

Based on poker odds charts:
Of the 880 times you do not flop a flush draw, you flop:
two Aces about 170 times (with bad kicker - often loses)
two pair about 18 times (may win about half the time)
trips about 1.2 times
a boat about .8 times
a made flush 8 times

When you get two Aces, you will have top pair, but that does not hold up very often in a large, multi-way pot, especially with a bad kicker.

Let's say that you win about 50 pots total with just Aces. The pots for just a pair of Aces will usually not be very large, so say $10/pot for a total of $500. The cost of playing Aces to the River 120 times and losing is, at a minimum, $4 * 120 = $480, for only a $20 gain.

Two pair fair better, maybe winning about half the time in a multi-pot. Again, you won't win very big pots because people are not going to be betting and raising a lot with hands weaker than trips. But say you average $15 for the 9 times your two pair hold up, for $135 and lose $4 on the other 9 for a net gain of about $100.

Trips and a boat may get you another $30 on average, though you will sometimes bet and raise trips strongly and get rivered.

The 8 times you flop a flush, you will almost always win, but you won't get much action. If 6 people limp preflop, 2 may call the flop and 1 the turn for a total of $10. Sometimes someone may call the River, other times they will fold the turn. So say 8*10 for $80.

So we have:
20 gain on a pair of aces
100 gain on 2 pair
30 gain on trips & boats
80 gain on a flopped flush
----
$230 total gain on other hands versus a loss of $400 on flushes
for a net loss of $170.

So we're back to the flushes: to win more than $20 of other people's money per pot requires a lot of raising.

Any raises preflop have a negative expectation because you are at best 16:1 to make a flush (and some of those would be runner-runner which you won't see) and are, at most, getting only 6-7 callers for every $1 you put in.

Raises on the Turn also usually have a negative expectation (assuming you are still on a draw) because you are usually up against only 1-3 players with less than 20% chance of hitting on the river. And if there is a pair on board when all this action is taking place, you may already be drawing dead to a boat or you may get boated on the river.

With three (or four) to a flush on the board, you are unlikely to get a lot of action on the river. You may get 1 player to make a crying calll with a worst hand, but that's about it.

Your best shot at making more money is (re)raising on the flop, but you are not always in position to do that. If the bettor is on your right and you raise, you are likely to knock out the other players rather than build a bigger pot.

Say that out of 120 flush draws, you can raise 60 of them and get 4 callers. That gets another $240 into the pots, but you are only going to win about a third (20) of those pots, or $80 to go against the $170 loss we already calculated. And the 40 of those 60 pots you raise and lose add another $40 to your loss.

If my calculations are anywhere close to accurate, it's hard to see how to make money playing Ax-suited.

[SplawnDarts]

In limit, to make flush and straight draws profitable, you have to extract value in cases where you don't hit much ie. bluff and semibluff successfully and play pair of aces sans kicker and medium pairs for more profit than you suggest.

That said, you're not going to make much, and you're going to need some advanced poker skills in the cases where you make something other than the flush (draw), because everything exlse you can make except for trip x or the boat is problematic.

Some things missing from your analysis:
semi-bluffing the flush draw
combo draws
wheels and wheel draws
semi-bluffing with middle pair
pure bluffs (especially on the river)
blind stealing with Ax suited
image payback from playing more hands

Just food for thought - you're not too far off - Axs is not great, and isn't profitable under a great many preflop scenarios.

[PorkchopDJG]

I would never open limp with Ax-suited but would raise it once and while from late position and definitely play it after a few limpers in the loose/passive type LHE live games I play in.

If there aren't many raisers behind you can get into and win a big pot in the following scenarios.
1) You flop two pair with your A and win a big pot from the guy with AQ or AJ who calls you down.
2) You can hit a wheel with A - 2,3,4 or 5(that is why I prefer A3 suited to A7 suited)
3) You can make the nut flush.

It can be profitable if you will be in a large multiway pot and know how to get away from it if you just get an A on the flop with heavy to moderate action.

[mvdgaag]

It is definately a profitable hand if played correctly. It is very difficult to play though, because your kicker is worth nothing and you'd have to judge if someone has a better ace a lot of the time. You want to catch two pair most of the time before you take any action.

A wheel is ok, but very hard to win big with if you are holding the A yourself. There are only low cards and mostly you are in there with other people drawing. If you hold 45s for example you can hit a wheel against someone that paired his aces and you possibly win a lot more.

What you should be playing it for is the nut flush preferably against someone feels he should slowplay when he hits with big cards.

Your calculations assume big losses, but if you can see a cheap flop, preferably multiway, you catch a flushdraw around one time in 7.5. You have 35% equity on a flushdraw, so as long as it doesn't get headsup you gain directly. Implied odds imply an even bigger gain. So even if you play it only for the flushdraw in multiway pots it's a break even hand in the long run. Of course you have more ways to win than catch a flushdraw.

[Bicycles_Biatch]

Ax- suited is much better in NL where you can stack someone when you pick up pair and a double draw or two pair.

I don't like it in Limit unless I'm on the button or in the blind.

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
It is definately a profitable hand if played correctly. It is very difficult to play though, because your kicker is worth nothing and you'd have to judge if someone has a better ace a lot of the time. You want to catch two pair most of the time before you take any action.

A wheel is ok, but very hard to win big with if you are holding the A yourself. There are only low cards and mostly you are in there with other people drawing. If you hold 45s for example you can hit a wheel against someone that paired his aces and you possibly win a lot more.

What you should be playing it for is the nut flush preferably against someone feels he should slowplay when he hits with big cards.

Your calculations assume big losses, but if you can see a cheap flop, preferably multiway, you catch a flushdraw around one time in 7.5. You have 35% equity on a flushdraw, so as long as it doesn't get headsup you gain directly. Implied odds imply an even bigger gain. So even if you play it only for the flushdraw in multiway pots it's a break even hand in the long run. Of course you have more ways to win than catch a flushdraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops, misunderstood... Thought this was NL. Most advice still goes only you get a lot less implied odds on your wheel and flush draws, but you don't get shut out with them that often either. Still profitable as long as you don't go too far with them.

Oh, one more thing... Playing break even or very slight loss hands is a great EV booster for your big hands, since you have a looser image. Especially in NL this helps a lot, but in limit it does too. Sessions where I played the breakeven hands I got payed off better with sets and broadway hands.

[Voltaire]

Good analysis as far as it goes. Thanks for posting it.

I've attempted a similar analysis a couple of times and came to similar, but slightly more positive conclusions. My actual experience shows that I've made money playing A9s-A2s in limit games from 30/60 to 1/2. It's very close though.

In positions 7 and 6 these hands are clear losers because you're more likely to get pumped by someone with a better ace in which case you are mostly dominated. These are position sensitive hands more so than many others.

Uh...where are these "loose limit games"?

[PorkchopDJG]

Canterbury Park MN
Please come and see for yourself.
Happy Hunting!

[Voltaire]

Great state. Maybe I'll move there, just as soon as you can do something about the weather.

[CardSharkGames]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis as far as it goes. Thanks for posting it.

I've attempted a similar analysis a couple of times and came to similar, but slightly more positive conclusions.


[/ QUOTE ]

My assumptions were actually overly optimistic, IMO. For example, I assumed flopping a flush draw 120 times in 1000 while in <u>Odds And Probabilities</u>, Hilger says it's only 110 times. I also think that a flopped pair of Aces are going to hold up a lot less often then I assumed (at least in my game they don't hold up).

[ QUOTE ]

My actual experience shows that I've made money playing A9s-A2s in limit games from 30/60 to 1/2. It's very close though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always felt that I was winning long-term with Ax-suited, but without very complete records, feelings can be misleading. That's why I did the analysis.

Some people made comments here about how profitable Ax-suited should be if played correctly, but couldn't provide any specific suggestions in how they should be played better than outlined in the original post, nor did they point out errors in the analysis.

[ QUOTE ]

In positions 7 and 6 these hands are clear losers because you're more likely to get pumped by someone with a better ace in which case you are mostly dominated. These are position sensitive hands more so than many others.

[/ QUOTE ]

In <u>Small Stakes Hold'em</u>, Sklansky recommends playing Ax-suited in ALL positions, which is another reason I did the analysis.