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Close call decision-- EV analysis?
Greetings all,
Interesting hand from final table of $10K local tourney. 5 handed, avg chip count = 125 K. I am at 173K-ish for right around second chip position. I am in the BB in this hand and chip leader (loose, passive, but running hot) 275K ish for dominant chip stack is UTG + 1. Third place= 100K ish on button, solid yet shown some big bluffs since beginning of final table. Blinds, 3K/6K with 200 ante Hero 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Chip leader opens for the min raise, folds to button who calls, I call. Flop= Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I check, wanting to check raise, UTG+1 bets out the size of the pot, button insta-moves in. Before I can act, UTG+1 and monster chip leader says "I call," forgetting that I was in the hand! 1st place money 4K ish, second 2150, third 1250....etc. I decided that with us 3 and two other short stacks, that I had the edge 4 handed and beyond, and so with the tricky player at risk I decided to muck. Looking at the whole range of situations I could have been in, I concluded I was up against 3 9's and a flush draw. I really thought I was dead for awhile, but if I was in the aforementioned situation above I couldn't have been a favorite. I was happy with the muck from an EV standpoint but am not sure. Any thoughts? |
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