Monday CBB plays

[dmoney416]

Sunday: 0-1

I am officially fade material now as I have lost four of five. One of those frustrating stretches where all of your leans win and all of your bets lose.

One for tonight:

Georgetown/Syracuse Under 134

I have studied up on this one as I hope to end my losing streak. Georgetown plays at one of the slowest paces of any D-I team (331, 329), but they can easily afford to do this as they are incredibly efficient on both ends of the court. Syracuse attempts to run (48, 38 in pace) and is efficient on both ends (more so on the defensive end according to the numbers, but I am not sure I agree with this). Syracuse averages 75 per game (but only 70 in their last five games) while G-town averages 69. Syracuse gives up 67.1 per game and G-town only gives up 56 ppg. Both teams also allow less than 40% shooting from the field. I expect defense and slow pace to be the norm in this game as G-town should take their time to solve the zone and Syracuse will have to slow down to find open jump shots against G-town's shut-down defense.

Since Syracuse's debacle against Notre Dame (a 103-91 loss), they have allowed opponents to score 70 only once in their last six games. Georgetown's streak is even more impressive, as they have allowed an opponent to score 60 only three times in their last ten games (two of these games were against Cincinnati, who came out pressing in both games in an attempt to make G-town uncomfortable with a fast tempo).

Both teams shoot 71% from the line, but Syracuse's number is a bit misleading as it is influenced largely by Nichols and Devendorf, who shoot 86.8% and 81.3% from the line respectively. The truth is, the inside players struggle from the charity stripe. Paul Harris does clock in at 70%, but Watkins shoots only 65%, and Roberts shoots a pathetic 51% from the line.

Georgetown 66
Syracuse 61


Lean toward Akron -9.5, but I can't pull the trigger on it. It may become a smaller play later, I'll have to look into it more. Questions and comments welcome. GL to all tonight and hopefully I get out of this slump.

[dmoney416]

Also forgot to add for those who like trends:

Georgetown
Under is 8-2 in Hoyas last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Hoyas last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 22-7 in Hoyas last 29 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 20-7 in Hoyas last 27 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 24-10 in Hoyas last 34 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-3 in Hoyas last 10 Monday games.
Under is 27-12 in Hoyas last 39 overall.
Under is 39-18-1 in Hoyas last 58 vs. Big East.
Under is 21-10 in Hoyas last 31 games following a ATS win.
Under is 37-18-1 in Hoyas last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Syracuse
Under is 5-0 in Orange last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-1 in Orange last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 7-1 in Orange last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Orange last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Orange last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Orange last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-1 in Orange last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Orange last 5 vs. Big East.
Under is 7-2 in Orange last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 7-2 in Orange last 9 games as a home underdog.
Under is 7-2 in Orange last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 22-7-1 in Orange last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 14-5-1 in Orange last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 17-7 in Orange last 24 Monday games.


Head to Head
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

[wiper]

careful on akron...they're 1 game ahead of kent in the conference, and play them this weekend...duq's not a threat, i'm just worried the zips will be looking ahead. not a long trip, from akron to pittsburgh, but like i said, they have their rivals waiting for them, for basically the regular season title..

not that they'll lose, but i can see them struggle to blow them out, too..

[dmoney416]

Thanks for the input wiper, I will probably end up staying away from that game. However, I feel that Akron still has a shot at an at-large bid, and that should be motivation enough I feel. But a look-ahead may still be possible.

[wiper]

i should mention that i'm a kent state grad, so that may affect my thinking, but it seems like in our little corner of the earth, this game won't matter NEARLY as much as kent/akron here in a few days...

don't get me wrong, akron is 10 points better, i just don't know where their motivation will be tonight, as their biggest game of the year is next..

[foolishdrunk]

hope it is, dropped a unit on them

[MicroBob]

I'm liking Akron too.

Also thinking about the under of 182.5. Will have to decide quickly.

[MicroBob]

Decided against the under.

Duq's appears to not have very much defense in their fast-paced style.
Pretty high scores in 10 of their last 11 games:

94-97
90-99
83-86
87-111
111-105
111-92
93-91
96-92
93-89
87-101


Initially thought Akron may intentionlly try to slow it down a tad. But they had a 93-87 result at BG in their last game indicating they'll probably be comfortable running with them.

Doubt Akron is looking THAT much ahead to Kent State.
It's not until Saturday. They have a game at Buffalo before then.

It's the beginning of a 3-game road-trip to conclude their season. I'm sure the coach has them focused on finishing strong and playing well throughout the whole trip.

[dmoney416]

Adding:

Idaho St. -3 (small play)