Blackjack EV for simple counting

[mtgordon]

I'm sure this has been asked/answer multiple times, but I couldn't find it using the search. What is the EV for Blackjack if you count? Also, how long does it take you to learn a strategy. I'm going to Vegas in a month and didn't know if it was possible to learn in that amount of time or not.

[JohnAndersen]

It depends on the amount of the bet sizes and the roll you are willing to work with, I can keep a basic count but I have never had enough money to make anything substantial of it. I am sure there are some more qualified people who can speak on this too.

[tmtmdeluca]

if you know anything about poker you will learn blackjack in 3 minutes

[mtgordon]

I certainly know about poker, so I'll take your word for it as far as learning blackjack. If you are playing 5 min 100 max BJ anyone know what a typical hourly rate (or however it is measured for BJ?

[ReidDeCardes]

[ QUOTE ]
if you know anything about poker you will learn blackjack in 3 minutes

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean the rules only.

[bpb]

Short answer - one unit per hour. (so $5 if spreading $5-$50)

Long answer

It depends on

1) The rules (hit or stand on S17, surrender, double after split, etc.)
2) Penetration ... how many decks are dealt before the shuffle
3) The counting system
4) The accuracy in implementing the counting system. (ie, How many mistakes you make. Using a simple system with a 5% error rate is probably better than using a complex system with a 15% error rate)
5) The bet spread (larger is higher EV, but increases your risk of ruin for a given bankroll)
6) How often you avoid playing hands in bad shoes (wonging in/wonging out)



It's certainly easy enough to learn a simple counting system in a month that will give you a marginal advantage over the house. Even with making a few counting errors per shoe. I'd recommend picking up the book "Knockout blackjack". It's a very simple unbalanced count that shouldn't take long to learn.

This assumes that you already know basic strategy. If you make basic strategy errors, then you have no chance of overcoming the house edge. This can be solved though by using a strategy card at the tables.

One thing to keep in mind is the variance associated with advantage blackjack play. To keep your risk of ruin under 5%, you should have a 1000 unit bankroll. So $5000 in order to play a $5-$50 spread for an expected earn of $5 an hour.

[ReidDeCardes]

Good post bpb.

I think your 5 numbered points are spot on, especially being accurate and making sure you follow a good betting ramp. A lot of pople seem to be afraid to bet enough and are spreading 1 to 5 units in a 6 deck shoe. That is clearly not enough to win.

But it's tough to make a bet for 12 units, get a pair of 7s, split the pair, get a 7 on the first split, split that, get a four on a 7 an double down, etc. And then lose. Even though you knew you were correct it's gonna feel bad.

Of course when you win that hand you are the mac daddy!

[Dan Druff]

Great answer, bpb.

Actually, I think you need to add a very important #7 to your list:

7) Discipline. Do you stick to your counting A-game when losing, or do you suddenly abandon it and slam out giant bets at inopportune times in order to chase losses?

I have known many players who understand the proper card-counting principles and can execute it well to begin with, but they go to pieces the second things start to go badly.