400nl, River bluff check/raise vs regular

chcheers · #1 02-25-2007, 04:40 PM

Villian is 22/15/2.4. He tends to get a bit over aggressive with top pair, but overall, he's a decent regular. I figured once he called the turn, he probably had a mid pair type hand which he planned to call with if I lead.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($1588.85)
SB ($409)
Hero ($533.75)
UTG ($112.15)
MP ($1328.30)
CO ($415.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $4, MP raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero calls $10, UTG calls $10.

Flop: ($44) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($44) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $32, UTG folds, MP calls $32.

River: ($108) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $100, Hero raises to $304

Thoughts?

Requin · #2 02-25-2007, 04:43 PM

Nice

wdead · #3 02-25-2007, 04:57 PM

owned. unless he called.

catcher193 · #4 02-25-2007, 05:13 PM

hrmm, its costing you $100 to win the pot against a bluff, and $304 to win the pot against a bluff + thin value bet.

I think your usually making hearts or such fold here, I'd save this play for when I have 56hh.

bdams19 · #5 02-25-2007, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hrmm, its costing you $100 to win the pot against a bluff, and $304 to win the pot against a bluff + thin value bet.

I think your usually making hearts or such fold here, I'd save this play for when I have 56hh.

[/ QUOTE ]

that makes no sense whatsoever

catcher193 · #6 02-25-2007, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hrmm, its costing you $100 to win the pot against a bluff, and $304 to win the pot against a bluff + thin value bet.

I think your usually making hearts or such fold here, I'd save this play for when I have 56hh.

[/ QUOTE ]

that makes no sense whatsoever

[/ QUOTE ]

your new?

restrikt · #7 02-25-2007, 05:33 PM

What, so you put him on a heart draw?

catcher193 · #8 02-25-2007, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What, so you put him on a heart draw?

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some people are going to disagree with me but I like this play much more if we have air.

his hands are the occasion slow played set (not ver often), a missed turned draw, and a thin valuebet with A7+.

so whether you should fold raise or call depend on how often your hand is good anyways and how often he is valuebetting a better hand that will fold to your CRAI.

My point is turning 55 into a bluff is only profitable if you make valuebetting hands fold way more often than you expect to call+win (has to be approx. 3x as likely).

I save these bluffs for really really good spots, or for when I determine that a CRAI bluff is slightly +EV with something like 5h6h when I think random crap like KhJh fills enough of his hand range.

Grandezza · #9 02-25-2007, 06:02 PM

I really don't see his bet as a marginal valuebet because he bets so close to the pot size. I think you're either looking at missed hearts or a queen or better and I really don't like the check raise. And I'm assuming he respects your game and doesn't think "OMG the board paired he's not gonna think I have a queen I can take him to valuetown with my TT and bet the pot he'll call."

bdams19 · #10 02-25-2007, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What, so you put him on a heart draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

some people are going to disagree with me but I like this play much more if we have air.

his hands are the occasion slow played set (not ver often), a missed turned draw, and a thin valuebet with A7+.

so whether you should fold raise or call depend on how often your hand is good anyways and how often he is valuebetting a better hand that will fold to your CRAI.

My point is turning 55 into a bluff is only profitable if you make valuebetting hands fold way more often than you expect to call+win (has to be approx. 3x as likely).

I save these bluffs for really really good spots, or for when I determine that a CRAI bluff is slightly +EV with something like 5h6h when I think random crap like KhJh fills enough of his hand range.

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i meant that it makes no sense because i am equating 55 to air here; you are including heart draw in the range which means that even if hearts hit we are still not good which is why this makes no sense to me that u like it better with 56hh