98s steal raise

[GoodOL]

You open raise on button with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]....SB folds and BB calls. BB is an aggressive player who understands button steal raises. He is capable of playing back at you post flop. He doesn't like to concede a hand in this situation.

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He checks, you bet, he raises, you three bet, he calls.

Turn comes J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He checks, you bet, he raises.

What is the best play here? This player could be bluffing, could have a monster (nut flush or boat), or could be drawing/have a lessor hand. He is capable of continuing with a bluff on the river (or bet a marginal hand he makes on river).

[AceHigh]

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What is the best play here?

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Raise...even if he is bluffing he won't fold if he has a spade and you want to make him pay if he is drawing live against you.

[alwaysburied]

I don't really like to raise here. Assuming he is on a big draw, if you raise, and he misses, he can't call. If you raise and he has you dominated, you lose extra. If you raise and he gets there, you lose extra. The only good situation is if he has J, or K-J with a spade and misses. I'm going to call, then check-call or bet if he checks the river.

[AceHigh]

Your not going to raise heads up with a flush (even on the river)? That seems way too passive to me.

[alwaysburied]

How can that be passive? He check-raised you on both of the previous streets! At some point, it's time to slow it down. What's the best you're hoping for raising the river? Either he caught you and raises/calls and beats you, or misses and can't call.

[StellarWind]

Your hand is very vulnerable and 3-betting is unlikely to protect it. I would call the turn and raise-call a non-spade, non-pair river.

I'm not worried about this player being on a pure draw and not paying for it. It's certainly possible that he might have that hand, but I expect him to either bluff the river (no showdown value) or checkcall (ace-high) because he will reason that you may be drawing too.

[Moneyline]

I think raising is clearly the best play. If he's semi-bluffing with a big spade you get an extra bet. If he's got a jack he'll pay you off. If you've been playing aggressively he may pay you off with far worse. If he has you beat, well, as Kurtis Blow said "those are the breaks;" but if you play in fear of monsters you're going to miss a lot of bets.

Just my opinion...

[GoodOL]

Result

I just called the turn CR. Reasoning:

1. He's bluffing (not semibluffing...pure bluff). A raise loses the river bet bluff. I figure there is a good chance he's making a move...maybe 35%.
2. He has a monster (higher flush/boat). A raise puts me in a difficult spot when he caps. I wouldn't want to fold against this player...so, I'd lose two more big bets. I estimate maybe 35%.
3. He has a Jack, flush draw, overpair, or some marginal hand (like underpair, middle pair, etc). Here's where it get more complicated. A raise gets an extra bet when his hand doesn't improve, but is good enough to call on the river. However, if he's drawing and misses...a raise doesn't get an extra bet because he's capable of betting the river on a bluff (but won't call river if turn is three bet).

I haven't worked out the math for it all...but I think, assuming my estimates are correct...that calling is correct?

He had A9o, no spade. The player made a comment that I played the hand wrong...that I should have raised, hence my post.

[AceHigh]

My analysis put him on number 3, a JX, one card flush draw or an overpair, a lot higher percentage of the time than you do and I think that makes raising correct.

Since I don't know this opponent at all, if that's wrong than maybe calling is better.

Don't forget there's a lot of cards that can come on the river that either make it either hard for you to raise (say a 4th spade or it pairs the board again) or make it unlikely he will bet ( maybe an Ace or King or spade). Also it's not given he will fire a bet on the river, he might just check a pair hand or maybe check/fold to a spade or Ace.

[Schmitty]

I would raise here. You're going to the river and have a strong hand. I'd say that he has either a one-card flush draw or a Jack quite often. Either way, it is difficult to assume that you are behind here. Also, if another spade comes on the river, or the board pairs you will most likely be getting the short-end of the stick of any river betting. If either a spade comes or the board pairs, and it is checked to me then I would be hard pressed to find a bet. Likewise, if he bets out if the 4th spade comes or the board pairs I would almost never raise. You may as well get your bets in now while you can as any river action is going to most likely cost you money. If the river card comes a blank would you be comfortable putting in a raise then? If you fear you are behind on the turn, and therefore call, then I don't see how you'd raise the river. If he is semi-bluffing with say, the A of spades, then you should make him pay dearly for doing so. He's less likely to get frisky like this in the future if he knows that you're going to put him to the test when semi-bluffing rather than going into a shell. Also note that if he is semi-bluffing with a big spade you are collecting zero bets on the river unless he (foolishly IMO) bluffs at the river.

As a side-note, given the action thus far, it is likely that your opponent would bet right out with a full-house, hoping to three-bet rather than check-raising.