3/6: Bluffing two players on the turn?

[Kost]

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.75BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

I see the check from CO (SLA) as weaknes and I feel that Button (30/10/1.9 wtsd 29%) is just trying to pick up the pot.

Do you think this line is + EV? Or is it just a waste of chips trying to do move like this at lower limits?

[Leader]

BT called 3-bets cold pf. He's not going out nearly enough for this.

[nickg1532]

yeah, i think it's time just to give up. sometimes i try this when i think they'll fold 44...but they never do

[Grendel]

Button liked his hand enough to call a pf 3-bet, liked it enough to call a flop bet, liked it enough to bet the turn... This does not look like someone who will fold to a measly turn raise.

If you had position, I'd like it. CO's check does look weak, so by raising you may be folding CO's AK or AQ, which is good for you. If you had position, you could check the river UI, which would cost the same as calling down and force out CO. You'd be risking 2 BB to win ~8, so it's reasonable to think you'd have a 20% chance that
A) Button folds, or
B) Button calls with a better hand and you outdraw him, or
C) Button calls with a worse hand and yours holds up
...in addition to the chance that CO folds, which looks pretty good.

But since you don't have position, what do you do on the river if Button calls? You're pretty much hoping he folds the turn. Given Button's pf call and flop call on a drawless board, it sure looks like he's got a pair somehow. Without position, I think you're too often putting extra money in the pot with the worst hand to make this move profitable.

-Grendel

[Kost]

Thanks for the feedback. If you saw my stat post I had a winrate of 0.07BB/100. People was pointing out that maybe I was too aggressive in the wrong spots. Let's assume I have been doing hopeless play like this 1 out of 100 hands on avereage costing me between 2 and 3BB each time. So if I eliminate play like this my winrate will hopefully get back to 2BB/100.

[hizo]

You're putting in 2 BBs to win 7.75 BBs then and there, so you're looking for both villains to fold &gt;1/4 times, which I don't think is going to happen. Optimistically let's give you 4 outs to improve to a winner... which will come in only 10% of the time.

I'm not explaining myself very well, but I think I fold this on the turn and wait for a better spot for a semi-bluff turn CR, preferably HU.