Fold to a river raise?

hunter.chief · #1 02-23-2007, 10:37 AM

Villain is unknown.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.10/$0.2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (11.5SB, 5 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, 3 folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.75BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.75BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 12.75BB

Should we consider folding the river although odds lay nearly 12:1?
Seems like we are beaten on the river.

fretelöo · #2 02-23-2007, 10:53 AM

Yes, fold looks appropriate.

martybonus · #3 02-23-2007, 10:55 AM

as much as I'd like to say no, i feel like obliged to say yes.

I don't think your equity is worth 2 bets here. If you'd checked and he bet, then i'd say yes. but his raise here suggests he's got something better than top two pair. any J or 6 beats you. He may well have coldcalled with A6s or JT.

i know, you've already bet so it feels like you're just calling for another bet. but I don't think you want to think of this like 12:1. yes, that is technically what you're looking at for the single call, but I think you need to look at your entire wager, including your original bet, so it's 12:2. I don't think it's worth a call.

when passive villains come alive, they're usually not lying.

others will likely disagree but I just can't see you winning this 1/6 times.

Scary_Tiger · #4 02-23-2007, 11:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
as much as I'd like to say no, i feel like obliged to say yes.

I don't think your equity is worth 2 bets here. If you'd checked and he bet, then i'd say yes. but his raise here suggests he's got something better than top two pair. any J or 6 beats you. He may well have coldcalled with A6s or JT.

i know, you've already bet so it feels like you're just calling for another bet. but I don't think you want to think of this like 12:1. yes, that is technically what you're looking at for the single call, but I think you need to look at your entire wager, including your original bet, so it's 12:2. I don't think it's worth a call.

when passive villains come alive, they're usually not lying.

others will likely disagree but I just can't see you winning this 1/6 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf kind of awful logic was this steaming post?

It's a fold versus all sorts of guys, but I'm calling until I have a read. Usually I'll have that read before I sit down at the table though.

fretelöo · #5 02-23-2007, 11:31 AM

Wow,

I assumed it's a b/f by such a huge margin that you'd need a read to decide otherwise. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Marty: This has nothing to do with the amount of money in the pot or whatever (at least not much). This is a simple bet/fold situation: You have a good hand for which you don't want to give up value by check/calling, but which is a severe underdog when raised. So you bet, hoping to get called by A8, but fold to the raise, because that raise tells you that you're no good here. You've spend the same amount as if you had check-called and have exploited the chance of getting another BB had he had A8 or A3 or whatever.
If you know he's a frequent bluffer, a c/c might even be the better play to start out with: You spend the same when behind and entice him to bluff at you. At the same time you don't give him the chance to raise you out of the hand had you bet.