2/4, 99 vs possible semibluff

[henkeee]

Villain is 22/8/1.4

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, Hero...

1. Can I call this turn and fold the river? What do you prefer, calling down or folding the turn (he doesn't seem that aggressive)?

2. Generally (not speaking about this hand), when you're HU and your turn continue bet gets raised after an innocent card. Would you say that I underestimate or exaggerate if I say "This is a bluff/semibluff 15 % of the time"?

[Allday Everyday]

I think your preflop raise and flop and turn bets are good play.

Without more specific reads on the the villain I would fold to his raise at the turn. I think he has a ten or better too often for a call to be profitable. But a semi-bluff seems possible on that particular board.

As you called the turn raise, I would check-call the river. When he bets the river I think you're even less likely to have the best hand, however, I think the pot is now big enough to call one bet on the end.

[ QUOTE ]
Generally (not speaking about this hand), when you're HU and your turn continue bet gets raised after an innocent card. Would you say that I underestimate or exaggerate if I say "This is a bluff/semibluff 15 % of the time"?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a difficult question to answer. It would depend on the villain, the board, and other things. In some situations I think it would be a bluff far more than 15% of the time, in others, I think it would be a bluff far less than this.

[threads13]

I think this is normally a fold to the turn raise. You are getting 10:2 on a call down so it has to be a worse hand ~17% of the time. Without a read I don't think so.

If I am calling the turn, it is with the intention of c/c'ing the river.

[HoneyBadger]

Again; be consistent. You call the turn c/r because you think you're good, the river didn't change that, so you call.

However, I would fold the turn here.

(maybe i should write a pooh'bah thesis on betting consistency and range balancing... or maybe I should finish my own thesis first lol)

here i agree with the consistency thing! you have to decide on the turn if your hand is good or not.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
(maybe i should write a pooh'bah thesis on betting consistency and range balancing... or maybe I should finish my own thesis first lol)

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, let's do the poohbah thesis first. sounds good.

[henkeee]

[ QUOTE ]
Again; be consistent. You call the turn c/r because you think you're good, the river didn't change that, so you call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did call, but I do think there are situations where you can call the turn and fold the river. Every villain won't follow up a bluff. Some villains (not this one) will free SD raise a worse hand and so on..

[henkeee]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Generally (not speaking about this hand), when you're HU and your turn continue bet gets raised after an innocent card. Would you say that I underestimate or exaggerate if I say "This is a bluff/semibluff 15 % of the time"?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a difficult question to answer. It would depend on the villain, the board, and other things. In some situations I think it would be a bluff far more than 15% of the time, in others, I think it would be a bluff far less than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it depends on the villain and the board. I know it's vague. (I thought about a tight to slightly loose and aggressive villain, that cold calls and raises some none scary turn card HU).

It would be interesting to some extent to have a general bluffpercentage when you make some calculations. I'm thinking of something like Harrington's NL rule, that a turn raise (if I remember correctly) is a bluff at least 10% of the time.

[James.]

do you think THAT type of villain is semibluffing a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]draw or some other crap often enough? a TAG or LAG sure, but he seems on the passive side.

is there a chance he would take this line with 77 or something? personally, i think he has JT or AT when he pops the turn. of course what you have seen him do specifically in the session might lend me to call down.

i also agree that there are times i call the turn vs. certain opponents with intentions of folding the river if they fire again. it often requires a pretty certain read, but i do it.