what would you do with this...

[wheatrich]

first of all, I play so bad--I should have been stacked twice earlier and I was up overall despite playing awful. Some days go weird (in those hands I would have gotten badly rivered [you know the 1/2 outer kind])... (somehow I'm a good winner in PLO now--funny how a few non horrifying weeks somehow erase those horrifying ones [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

Anyway this hand came up and I'm wondering what you all would do in this situation.


** [Omaha] (1.00|2.00 Pot Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

Villian 1 is a regular omaha player who knows I am who knows he is etc, etc.
Villian 2 is a donk

- Villian 2 sitting in seat 1 with $39.00
- Villian 1 sitting in seat 3 with $274.33
- Hero sitting in seat 5 with $466.53 [Dealer]

SB - $1.00
BB (villian 2) - $2.00

** Dealing card to Hero: 7 of Diamonds, 9 of Clubs, 7 of Clubs, 10 of Hearts

Villian1 raised - $6.00

Hero called - $6.00

SB called - $6.00

Villian 2 called - $6.00


** Dealing the flop: Ace of Spades, 7 of Hearts, 4 of Hearts

SB checked

Villian2 checked

Villian 1 bet - $20.00

Hero called - $20.00

SB folded

Villian 2 went all-in - $35.00

Villian 1 called - $35.00

Hero called - $35.00

** Dealing the turn: Queen of Spades

Villian1 bet - $104.00

Hero folded

Villian2 shows: Ace of Clubs, 5 of Spades, Queen of Clubs, 7 of Spades

Villian1 shows: 6 of Diamonds, Ace of Hearts, 10 of Diamonds, Queen of Hearts


** Dealing the river: King of Spades

Villian2 wins $126.00 from the main pot


After I get blasted I'll post my analysis and why I did whatever yadda yadda. I just wonder what everyone else would do here.

[dibbs]

Unlike many I'm pretty big into calling in spots and getting a feel on the turn, but I don't get this.

Qs is a relative blank for you, and if seat 3 who is decent has a hand in an already swelled pot he's gonna blast you at any given point right?

[SprattFactor]

Don't call the flop. Either raise or fold, imo. It's decision time, either raiser has top set AAA or he doesn't. Pump it or dump it, totally read dependent. I'm a real sucker for middle set, so I push here, but I'm keen for other opinions.

Raiser's range of raising hands is crucial in this spot. If he will raise with your 89TJ's and KK55's, AKQJ's, etc. etc. ie. there's a strong chance he hasn't marked himself with AA, then yeah, I'll push.

[wheatrich]

With the donk in the hand--this flop bet is not a cbet. He has a good hand here.

I don't think this is a raise/fold situation on the flop because I can't get in enough of my stack here and there are a ton of turn cards I'm going to have to check/fold. Why commit that many chips on a hand that is so vulnerable here? (although I think you're referring to the second go around but I knew the other guy had the odds even had I pushed to chase me so I was hoping I could make it so he couldn't on the turn)

The Qs wasn't a blank either--it added a ton of outs that could beat me. (as you all found out) A common mistake in PLO is assuming that is a blank when in fact it's not (it adds 20% to someone's equity and gained a ton of potential straights). With one guy literally holding any four (I was guessing 568) he easily can have the spades and with the other guy having something like AQKT what river card do I win with? Not enough for my liking--that's why I folded.

With that turn bet I knew the other villian had at worst AQ with two hearts, I was pretty sure that was exactly what he had and with little chance of winning the whole pot because of the other guy I thought folding was slightly better than pushing (of course he would have played AAA the same way). That Q also made it certain that there were a ton of possible gutshot straight cards that would make equity for me in tough shape.

I did almost put it though because I was so sure of what he had--I just couldn't have been enough of a favorite to take the entire pot for it to have been worth it. I just called the flop cause I did want a blank but that card just looked more like a blank than it actually was. Q of clubs though and I would have pushed. Equity wise I was either slightly ahead (which I thought I was) or hugely behind that guy with a lot of rivers giving either him or the donk the hand.

The more I think about it the more I like my laydown in this spot and I think raising the flop in this spot is the worst play even though you I was pretty sure I had the best hand but not best equity. (it's PL not NL remember kids I couldn't just push it on the flop)

There is almost no such thing as a blank in PLO with 3 or more people in the pot (unless you have some kind of pure nuts) I was looking for one that didn't add flush outs.

However in this spot, folding on the flop probably was the best play with raising the worst one. (also I had no idea villian2 had even an ace here--I was assuming he had some dry 56 cause he would have done the same thing with that of course if he flipped over his hand and I saw the AQ my turn play would have been easy) I was assuming those outs were all live including all the gutshot straights (which I'm completely shocked were mostly dead because they had little draws--I was fully expecting three or more possible there).

Oh well, obviously here I made a mistake but I can't look at oriented results in this case just because of the lack of outs with the wrong board pair and straight draws.

Factoring in what I thought each of them had my equity was the worst of the three instead of what it really was as the best of three. Again results oriented...

The Qs was a relative blank huh? Assuming I was correct in reading their hands that card dropped my equity 12%. (instead of what it really did and increased it 12... LOL but what they had was the absolute best case scenario for what I was putting them on. You can never count on that.)

Actually even if this was NL--I don't push this flop given my read here because if I'm dead right I'm only 37% equity or I'm almost dead. Unfortunately I was wrong here but I'm not going to go against my reads anytime soon.

[BluffTHIS!]

wheat,

Your hand isn't exactly a premo but is a reasonable one in position. On the flop, you have middle set with no draws to go with it, and in a raised pot where AA might be out. But since you have the read you did on shorty, I would play as you and call and take a card off. That Qs, although adding more draws to the board, still doesn't complete a flop draw, so it was a good if not great card for you. I would have raised to either get rid of villain1 and whatever draws he had, or to build a sidepot with him, since from the action on the flop it is villain2 who has you beat currently with AA if anyone does. By raising and building a sidepot with villain1 and setting yourselves in, you now have no decisions to make when an ugly card comes on the river.

[wheatrich]

I should mention this was six handed but there was no reason to ever believe Villian2 had a hand there. I don't know if Villian1 could have reraised the flop even he had AAA that was another problem leading to my decision since the allin wasn't even a minraise (sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't...).

Unfortunately when villian1 bet the turn I had him on one of two hands and that was it. I just did the wrong thing. Had I raised the flop--he still has equity to push/chase me. So I was trying to get him into a mistake on the turn--but then he bet so I ended up being the one to make it.

I just get mad at myself when I make a mistake--even if it would have resulted in me losing more money (although in this case that wouldn't have been true). In conclusion I hate money apparently.