#1
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100NL flush draw
Posting this here, because I think its an elementary situation.
villain is competent TAG PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button ($122.50) SB ($202.65) BB ($103) UTG ($103) Hero ($96.30) Preflop: Hero is MP with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: ($9) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $31</font> This seems bad to me, but I cant understand it logically |
#2
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Re: 100NL flush draw
He has to fold a significant portion of his range, so I guess it's bad insofar as villain does not lead the flop without a hand that can withstand a raise. If he's competent he may be liable to avoid putting himself in tough spots OOP, so a PSB is not a marginal hand.
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#3
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Re: 100NL flush draw
This is fine if he is a tag that can fold a semi-weak ace like AJ etc. It's also fine if he can have something worse than an ace here. This is bad if villian mostly has AXs or a big A or a SET when he does this.
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#4
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Re: 100NL flush draw
It was weird. The only time I had seen him do this was when he was betting draws. With AK he checkraised. I was thinking, "do I want to raise him off a draw? Wait...I have the draw. Can he mix up his play maybe?" My read just didnt help my course of action.
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#5
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Re: 100NL flush draw
I don't have the energy to do the math but this looks like an EV+ play if used sparingly.
The raise should fold AJ and worse incl. draws => ~30% FE (??) and hero gets a free turn card 90% of the time. If the free turn card were 100% of the time then the FD would be priced in. I think the FE should make up for the times villain needs to fold the flop or turn. |
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