Fold A Flush?

Phresh · #1 02-21-2007, 03:16 PM

First hand. All I have to go on is that the big stack has won the previous 5 pots without showdown.

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed)

Hero ($400)
UTG ($234)
UTG+1 ($737.25)
MP1 ($343.60)
MP2 ($212)
CO ($837.75)
Button ($533.70)
SB ($553.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls $4, CO raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, MP2 calls $4.

Flop: ($26) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $20, MP2 calls $20, CO calls $20.

Turn: ($86) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $52, MP2 raises to $184, CO raises to $625.75, Hero ??
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hamnegger · #2 02-21-2007, 03:19 PM

are you serious? this is the easiest fold in the world. why did you bother to lead again? if it was to see where you are at (you should have known anyway) i think your opponents just gave you the answer

Phresh · #3 02-21-2007, 03:21 PM

Yeah, I should've check-folded once I made a flush.

Eagles · #4 02-21-2007, 03:35 PM

It's for sure a fold given the action and obviously the flop lead is fine.

Praetor · #5 02-21-2007, 03:36 PM

nice hand so far, easy fold

StJude · #6 02-21-2007, 03:40 PM

This is a tough situation for a couple reasons, a lot of which have to do with you being first to act. Its not so much the CO that you have to worry about as it is MP2 having you beat with a higher flush. From what you said of the CO it is very likely that he could be pushing as a bully, with a strong draw, or maybe even a set. I discount either player holding J9 because the flop is too scary against two players to not raise and knock the flush draws out.

Ok, so now here's the thing. MP2's bet is a push, this puts him all in and so, essentially, he is out of the hand after he builds the pot up to $320. When CO raises you all in he is only betting the remainder of your stack, not his and so this pushes the pot up to $640 or thereabouts. Now, since the main pot is only about $130 more to you and the other $190 of your stack will go into a $380 sidepot with CO you have to really start considering the pot odds.

I believe in calling what you would essentially be doing is betting $190 to win $380 against an opponent you can be relatively sure you have beat (after all, you said he bullied the last five pots so why wouldn't you think he is just bullying this one), but who could possibly outdraw you with either a fullhouse or the Ah flush. So you bet the rest of the $190 to win $380 figuring that when you get your money in against the CO you have the better hand, which is the right thing to do because correct decisions, not necessarily money, are the whole point of the game. And so if you win the sidepot but you lose (because youre either drawing dead or get outdrawn) the main pot race to MP2 you would only be $20 down for the hand.

If, on the other hand MP2 did play J9 or possible has two-pair or trips, then you are also getting your money in against him correctly and you stand to win $600 on the hand. And if you lose, you will only lose $20 (assuming that making the correct decision at the moment will hold up on the river, but there is nothing you can do about fate anyway).

I say it's a call. A definite call. Given the pot odds and your risk-reward ratio yes, it is a bit of a gamble, but it's one you have to take here.

What do you think?

-StJ

Phresh · #7 02-21-2007, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nice hand so far, easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the only reason why I don't agree is because the dude seems to be running the table over. Maybe he's just on a massive heater, though. Anyway, I obviously called and he had the nuts.

StJude · #8 02-21-2007, 03:46 PM

Exactly. The only bit of info you know is that he has been running the table over. Given that info, a call is necessary there. Too bad he had the nuts because I think you made the right play.

Parlay Slow · #9 02-21-2007, 04:46 PM

definitely a fold

Hindsight2020 · #10 02-21-2007, 05:01 PM

nh, now instafold

this is a seriously easy fold, even 6 handed, let alone 8

running the table over or not, he would have to be suicidal to bluff here, and a flush is WELL within his range

even when he IS FOS, you're not even closing the action

this might be close with a J high flush, or even a K high flush, but it's a crystal clear fold, with a 7 high one