KK preflop against nits, folding is only a small mistake if at all,,,

[morphball]

Standard $50NL & $100NL scenario for me lately...

Villian is 12/2.6 after several hundred hands. Seems weak, and he may go to showdown a little too often, but how relevant is this to a preflop shove? Villian opens for 5xBB, you 3-bet enough to take away odds with KK, Villian shoves.

(You have never observed him shoving with anything noteworthy...)

What range does Villian have here, is this ever QQ? Would this villian do this with AK? I fooled around a bit, and assuming equal distributions of villian's hands, this is only a call (and a flip at that) if you can get AK in his range, and a slightly more profitable flip if you add QQ.

So with this type of opponent, when he 4-bet shoves, is KK a fold?

Consider this action, Villian opens to 5xBB, and his range is optimistically 99+, AK, AQs. You raise enough to minimize implied odds and get AK to shove. By doing this, you announce QQ+, AK to your opponent. (Whether this is your range or not is irrelevant because that's how he sees it unless you are truly a maniac, because 12/2.6 villian is not an astute player, and probably on many tables since his stats are formulaic and you cannot play that tight on one table and keep your mind.)

His shove is for value and its AA at least 40% given that you have two K's yourself, and probably more often given this opponent's stat's. I think under this scenario, KK is a fold, especially if you are averse to variance at the moment as your EV, if positive, is small.

Thoughts?

[Robin Donks]

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His shove is for value and its AA at least 90 %

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP
In my experience 12/2 nit has AA here like always. They like limpcalling and flacalling with AK and QQ so folding KK against a shove by 12/2 is correct play. You cannot lay down KK preflop against a solid player.

[MotorBoatingSOB]

This is something that I have been struggling with recently. There are situations where it is absolutely and painfully clear that your opponent has {KK+} preflop yet I find myself unable to lay down KK getting crappy odds.

The common wisdom that I have always heard is that it is never correct to lay down KK preflop. I think this is wrong. A scenario that I often see is that there is a raiser and and a few callers, then one of these tightwads (like your 12/2.6 villain) will move in for a full buyin. I'd like for someone to try to argue that this can be anything but KK or AA. These people just never make plays and aren't risking their stack preflop without a monster.

There are times when I have been really close to folding in these spots but I can never find it in me, given that all I've ever been told is "never fold KK preflop". This is something I'd like to work on.

[Robin Donks]

Hand from memory

Hero is 18/11/3.5
Villain is 12/2 over 500 hands and has called a raise with AK at least twice

100 NL FR
Dealt to Hero KK
Hero bets UTG $3
Villain raises UTG+2 $30
Hero tanks, pukes and times out.

[jetsetboy]

OP it seems to be a standard fold for me even if it's hard. Even at NL200/NL400 thight weak players aren't imaginative enough to play AK or QQ- this way often enough to make this a call.

The never fold KK preflop is clearly a "6max rule"

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

His shove is for value and its AA at least 90 %

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP
In my experience 12/2 nit has AA here like always. They like limpcalling and flacalling with AK and QQ so folding KK against a shove by 12/2 is correct play. You cannot lay down KK preflop against a solid player.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 40% froms from, if we say the villian's range is KK+,AK, then since you have KK, there are 15 combinations of cards he can have, and 6 of those are AA (or 40%).

I think you are right that against this Villian, his distribution will be skewed in favor of AA & KK over AK. But as to what degree, I can't say. I think that's depends on a lot of things, because some villians, even ones who play 12/2.6, will just call your bet with AA if it gets HU.

Even if it's not skewed, however, it doesn't really matter because the +EV you get from calling is very small without a lot of dead money in the pot.