Sklansky: there's always a 10% chance that he's bluffing

SlamminP · #1 02-20-2007, 12:02 AM

Or was it Miller who said that??

anyway, in pots where you're getting 10-1 on a call on the river, is it worth calling if you at all suspect you could have the winning hand? I recall from one of Sklansky's books that there's always a 10% chance that your opponent is bluffing therefore you should call in tight situations like this.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB raises, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

I wussed out, but what's the consensus here? This is obviously highly read dependent but any other thoughts?

DrModern · #2 02-20-2007, 12:13 AM

If Sklansky or Miller issued such a platitude they deserve a firm smack.

SlamminP · #3 02-20-2007, 12:16 AM

Yeah I could be wrong, but I do think they said that somewhere in SSHE.. although it was probably something more like "under these conditions... there's always a 10% chance of bluff" Maybe somebody who has read it more recently can clear this up.

00Snitch · #4 02-20-2007, 12:19 AM

This isn't really "is there are 10% chance he is bluffing" because he is representing the Ace (or flush) on the turn and you are going to have to call a river bet. So you are really getting more like 1:4 than 1:10 to call here if you think he is bluffing, representing the Ace. So he would have to be bluffing 20% of the time (or is it 25%, that always confuses me).

However, because you have the draw on the turn, you are correct to call when he raises. Are you correct to bet the turn? Damn, I can never figure that out! In the hand, I would probably bet that turn, but that Ace is unusually scary, in fact, it is probably the single worst turn card for you. Overcard, (unlikely) straight card, flush card, semi-bluff card (on the flush draw). PLUS, you of course have to call a c/r. Perhaps this turn should be a check?

River, well, I dunno. I spew with showing down one pair hands, second only to showing down high-card hands.

That wasn't a very insightful reponse, sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

00Snitch · #5 02-20-2007, 12:25 AM

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If Sklansky or Miller issued such a platitude they deserve a firm smack

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is in SSH. Im pretty sure it says something along the lines of: If you are HU on the river you should very often call, even if you can only beat a bluff, if the pot is over 10 bets.

EGO · #6 02-20-2007, 12:26 AM

I don't remember seeing it in a limit book, but Dan Harrington definately says it in his books, which are about no-limit. If someone is bluffing too much, it will show soon enough.

Check/call, check/raise (from a sleeper), bet line shows no fear of the ace or the 3-flush, and is usually a better hand than 2nd pair on an ace high board.

I play it the same.

DrModern · #7 02-20-2007, 12:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If Sklansky or Miller issued such a platitude they deserve a firm smack

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is in SSH. Im pretty sure it says something along the lines of: If you are HU on the river you should very often call, even if you can only beat a bluff, if the pot is over 10 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

That advice only applies to super loose games filled with huge donks.

00Snitch · #8 02-20-2007, 12:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That advice only applies to super loose games filled with huge donks

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt. It certainly doesnt apply to this hand.

DrModern, do you have any opinion on the hand in question?

DrModern · #9 02-20-2007, 12:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That advice only applies to super loose games filled with huge donks

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt. It certainly doesnt apply to this hand.

DrModern, do you have any opinion on the hand in question?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd play it the same as OP against an unknown.

bbbushu · #10 02-20-2007, 12:34 AM

i thought i read that in HOH 1...