25NL -- QQ vs UTG raise from mouse, how's my line?

[Maple Leafs]

UTG is 15% VP$IP and 1.83% PFR (160 hands). Help me walk through this line.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $23.40
UTG+1: $23.75
MP1: $25.05
MP2: $24.75
MP3: $41.75
CO: $34.10
Hero: $25.55
SB: $25.70
BB: $59.90

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1</font>, 5 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

What could villian's raising range be UTG? AA, KK, QQ, maybe AK? JJ if we stretch it? I could see an argument for a raise here to "find out where I'm at", but I think I know where I'm at and it's not good. I probably get a re-raise against AA and a call otherwise, so I'm not sure what I gain there. Maybe I fold out JJ if it's there.

Anyone want to argue for a fold? I think implied odds for set value are enough to keep going.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1.5</font>, Hero calls.

No set, but not a bad flop. Villian bets it but it smells like a c-bet. Maybe it's AK after all?

I thought about a re-raise, but I don't think the board is scary enough for him to fold unless he puts me on JJ. So I call and plan to get aggressive if the flush or straight draw arrives. (Is this a "float"?)

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG calls.

No draw, but another J is almost as good and villian is starting to look weak. How's the re-raise here? Not enough, is it?

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

I have to bet here (yes?), but how much? If he has AA or KK he could be willing to lay it down. Of xourse if he has AK I'm actually betting for value. How much do you throw out there?

[RunDownHouse]

Guys this timid usually aren't calling that turn scare card with AK, and they certainly won't call a river bet with it UI. It looks more like you put him in a shell with the raise on the paired turn unless you've got some read that he's a big calling station.

I have no idea what you should do on the river.

[Supwithbates]

raise to 7-8 on the turn. check behind on the river.

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
As played, or with larger turn raise?

[br.bm]

Preflop is fine. What if AA decides to call? Or AK reraises you?
All sucks. Calling for set value is fine.

I really love flop and turn. If you raise the flop you will find yourself in a big pot on the river. We dont want it.
The turn raise if nice because it enables you to check behind on the river.
Let's say he has AA, KK, JJ or AK.
AA and KK will call your river bet. JJ, AJ is going to check raise. AK will fold.
I can't see any worse hand call your river bet. Just check behind.

I like the size of the turn raise.
floating: You know somebody often cbets with air. (AK unimproved etc) He's also loose and does this with all kind of hands.
Well, get position on him, call his cbet on the flop and if he checks the turn you bet and he folds.

[corsakh]

If you get a read on someone, you have to follow it through all the way to the river. You can't just put someone on JJ+ and then call a J high flop with QQ simply because if you read is correct you are beat everytime. And if not, you made a mistake preflop and now you have no choise but to fold.

By not raising preflop and then calling this flop against this viallin you are entering a world of pain and there is no "right" decision on the later streets as they all suck unless you hit a queen.

[elmopoker]

I'd reraise preflop. Raising UTG doesn't mean high pockets or AK. If he comes over the top or shoves i'd ponder a fold since you might behind anyway, but if he just calls you can start to put him on lower pockets or AQ / AK hands.

[corsakh]

What do you think PFR 1.83% raises, 23o for crist sake?

[AntonHeat]

Raise Pre around 4$

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
... if he just calls you can start to put him on lower pockets or AQ / AK hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
At 1.83% pfr, I'd think that the chances of him having low pockets or AQ here is approximately zero.