How many hours needed to know your win rate?

[golfmark]

I have been playing live poker for about a year and a half now and have 582 hours of 1/2NL logged and 104 hours of 5/5NL logged. Most of this is in clubs around the city and some casinos. Is this enough time to accuratly know what my hourly win rate is? If not, how many hours are needed to accutatly represent how much you make per hour?

[TheStation]

Lets say you typically see an average of 25 hands an hour at 1/2 NL which would put you at 14,550 over 582 hours. From my own experience I think this is enough to get a realistic view of your live win rate. I know in the past most people have said after 500 hours you should have a good view.

I would say after 104 hours of 5/5 NL, you probably dont know your true winrate yet and in time you will be able to figure out what that is after you hit the 500 hour or so mark.

I typically graph my winrate vs hours played and watch for where that graph begins to level out. This can also be challenging as you are hopefully getting better over time so that might help your winrate as well.

[golfmark]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say you typically see an average of 25 hands an hour at 1/2 NL which would put you at 14,550 over 582 hours. From my own experience I think this is enough to get a realistic view of your live win rate. I know in the past most people have said after 500 hours you should have a good view.

I would say after 104 hours of 5/5 NL, you probably dont know your true winrate yet and in time you will be able to figure out what that is after you hit the 500 hour or so mark.

I typically graph my winrate vs hours played and watch for where that graph begins to level out. This can also be challenging as you are hopefully getting better over time so that might help your winrate as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. My 1/2 per hour is currently at $19.42/hr. When I was at 450 hours it was at $26.15/hr. I guess I was just wondering if I was lucky for the first 450 hours or if I just hit a cold streak this last 130 hours. The $26.15/hr was my peak, so I'm hoping the lat 130 hours are just variance.

[VORP]

Win rates are useful as a guide and little else. The fact that your rate changed by over 20% in your last 130 hours should illustrate this pretty well. You can never get a “true” win rate because in the time it takes to play a million hands your game will inevitably have changed greatly, making the earlier results inaccurate. You are obviously beating the game with your results, but you have also run hot (or kept inaccurate records).

The best way I know if you want to get a better sense of what’s possible is to learn how to do some monte carlo sims and play around with those. Then you can get some probability ranges.

[PeteN]

I think it's more useful to analyze your wins/losses and determine if you've played correctly or gotten lucky or unlucky in combination with your winrate. If you start playing bad your winrate is going down and I beleive bad streaks are often caused by this vs unlucky play.

[otter]

I have 3 seperate colums on my record sheet other than win/loss, etc...I have a column for overall play, hand selection, reads and I rate myself on each session w/ a letter from A-F.

[otter]

can you explain: "I typically graph my winrate vs hours played and watch for where that graph begins to level out?"

Do you mean that you add up every session that was one hour, two hours, etc...and tally the results then plot hours played vs. overall win?

[Seputro]

2.5-3K hours of live play.

That will give you a rough estimate, and at least tell you if you're a winning player.

[jiacstrap]

[ QUOTE ]
2.5-3K hours of live play.

That will give you a rough estimate, and at least tell you if you're a winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

you think?

[TheStation]

[ QUOTE ]
can you explain: "I typically graph my winrate vs hours played and watch for where that graph begins to level out?"

Do you mean that you add up every session that was one hour, two hours, etc...and tally the results then plot hours played vs. overall win?

[/ QUOTE ]

On my spreadhseet where I track my results, for each limit that I play (2-5 NL for example), I have a column with my total winnings at that level, hours played, then another column that divides those two to show my winrate after x total hours.

I like graphing hours vs $/hr winrate as you can see when that number swings up and down and compare it to previous events and learn from that, granted a hours vs $ made graph will show a similar trend, I just find it easier to spot it when i put hours vs my winrate after x hours