$100 Overpair vs passive

NL Newbie · #1 02-18-2007, 12:43 PM

31/7/.7 over 270hands 26/66 WTSD/W$SD 
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($100)
UTG ($45.07)
MP ($189.80)
CO ($239.85)
Button ($73.08)
Hero ($282.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $12.5, 1 fold, MP calls $9.

Flop: ($27) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $20.

Turn: ($67) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Plan? His range?

iceit · #2 02-18-2007, 12:50 PM

pretty safe board. keep betting into him. his range, small pocket pair, bigger pocket pair and flush draw.

Mossberg · #3 02-18-2007, 03:41 PM

edit: wow nm I suck at reading. Based on stats and his possible range, I think aislephive's stackadonk plan is pretty sexy here.

aislephive · #4 02-18-2007, 03:50 PM

I'd stackadonk here. He'll likely bet KK/QQ on turn if checked to him and will call a shove a lot.

Kermit · #5 02-18-2007, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet like 45 and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I bet every street. Stackadonk is an option, but against the player described, I just keep betting.

dregal · #6 02-18-2007, 04:12 PM

AP - do you think that his range is heavily weighted towards QQ/KK?

Personally I think he can have 99+ here as well as a FD, and I don't know that he bets 99,1010, or a FD if tis checked to him (he has a .7 AF). I agree that we can stack-a-donk KK/QQ here, but I think we lose value against the rest of range.

I like leading the turn.

Whisper · #7 02-18-2007, 04:18 PM

Becaseu you guys are deep, make a smallish bet on turn to control theh size of the pot. I really dont think you can get it in here and be ahead that often. If he called turn i would probebly b/f river like 1/2 to 2/3 pot.

As for your RR pf, its wayyy too small. OOP, with deep stacks, make it at least 17 or something. Will also be easier to stack KK/QQ which become a larger part of his calling range.

aislephive · #8 02-18-2007, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AP - do you think that his range is heavily weighted towards QQ/KK?

Personally I think he can have 99+ here as well as a FD, and I don't know that he bets 99,1010, or a FD if tis checked to him (he has a .7 AF). I agree that we can stack-a-donk KK/QQ here, but I think we lose value against the rest of range.

I like leading the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't raise often preflop, and he has called a reraise and a flop bet on a rag board. KK/QQ/JJ seems very likely. When he has TT/99, it's also better to check the turn and then value bet the river because it's very unlikely TT/99 will call a turn bet with the threat of a massive river bet lurking. Bottom line is I don't think we should ever be folding here. Bet/call is fine I guess, I prefer turn c/r ai though for the reasons mentioned earlier.

Jay Riall · #9 02-18-2007, 05:10 PM

Anything is good except the way you actually played it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

RiverHebrew2 · #10 02-18-2007, 05:12 PM

Is he weak/tight and passive or is he passive with huge hands, or is he just a fish. If he's a fish, bet $55 on this turn. If he's weak tight, check turn and valuebet riv, as this board is pretty safe unless a diamond peels off on riv.