Is this a good time to c/f KK?

[aislephive]

Villain is 12/9 over a good sample, and since the main pot is protected I doubt he is ever going to bluff here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($92.22)
Hero ($204)
UTG ($281.60)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($382.50)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Button ($28.40)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $8</font>, Button calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, MP calls $24, Button calls $28.40 (All-In).

Flop: ($101.40) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="black">Hero ???

[Michaelson]

Isn't this an easy bet?

I don't understand your logic at all.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this an easy bet?

I don't understand your logic at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really that complicated.

This player is extremely tight, and has called a 4x reraise. His range is likely 88+/AK, and he might even fold out something like 88/99/AK. Of his range, I'm only beating QQ. I do not have to worry about being bluffed as there is another player all in who must be beaten to win the main pot, and there is not yet a sidepot to play for. My only real problem with check folding is he might bet QQ if I check and I'll end up folding the best hand. Although QQ still is 25% to win here so I'm not in great shape against anything he could have, and I'm drawing to two outs pretty often.

Clearer now?

[Michaelson]

Yeah I guess.

I tend to find that people are idiosyncratic with the types of hands they play preflop, so I wouldn't necessarily agree with you about his range. I'd bet to fold out/extract value hands like AK, AQ, AJ, 99, QQ.

Which is not me saying that I'm right, that's just how I approach a spot like this right now. I'll be interested to see a discussion on this hand unfold.

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]


It's not really that complicated.

This player is extremely tight, and has called a 4x reraise. His range is likely 88+/AK, and he might even fold out something like 88/99/AK. Of his range, I'm only beating QQ. I do not have to worry about being bluffed as there is another player all in who must be beaten to win the main pot, and there is not yet a sidepot to play for. My only real problem with check folding is he might bet QQ if I check and I'll end up folding the best hand. Although QQ still is 25% to win here so I'm not in great shape against anything he could have, and I'm drawing to two outs pretty often.

Clearer now?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a tough spot...because the only hands you really beat against a guy like this are QQ/AK. If you don't think he'll fire w/ AK here...C/F might be ok. Good/bad news is you'll get to see whether you were right.

What about making a smallish 1/2 pot lead? He'll almost surely fold AK...probably just call w/ QQ...and hopefully raise w/ a set. Although, that's probably being too optimistic.

The more I think about it...the less I like this spot. Interesting hand.

[aislephive]

Bump.

[Whisper]

Just bet and get it all in. Even really tight players make crazy moves, if he called and hit a set ok, he got pretty lucky, move along. This really looks like QQ or JJ to me, maybbee AK. Pray its QQ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[arilzo]

We think villain fold 22-77 preflop?

Very interesting hand, tough tough spot. Looking forward to some reflected posts. I'm not sure 22-77 is not part of villains range.

[WoodyWoahzay]

Here is a very similar hand I posted where I think check folding is okay, although leading was prefered by by the other posters.

In your hand I'm betting to get all in becuase

- We only have 100bb's
- QQ will pay you and this player might fold TT preflop.
- I think AA is more likey to 4 bet preflop with the short player behind him.

[aislephive]

Ok.

I bet $50 in the actual hand.

He raises to $150.

????