$100NL Thin Value Bet

[Cry Me A River]

This is becoming a running theme in my posts - When to value bet good hands on scary boards while villain has been passive.

So, value bet river or take the free showdown?

Villain is 43.5/2.9/0.69.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($88.45)
UTG+1 ($143.40)
MP1 ($80.20)
MP2 ($36.45)
Hero ($106.60)
Button ($98)
SB ($104.70)
BB ($102.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, MP1 calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $17</font>, MP1 calls $17.

River: ($57.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero...?

[andyEB]

I think you have to bet here again (he's not checking with a flush) $30. I think you can fold to a raise though.

[1p0kerboy]

I bet here.

[andyEB]

I think you can bet more on the turn also (he could very likely be on a draw).

[trontron]

i would bet the river. turn bet seems good to me.

[CanSpoilU]

No reason not to bet the river. If he raises... then re-evaluate.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

This is tougher than the straight hand. I would check the river. He isn't going to call with a missed flush hand like AK or AQ and those hands are a large part of his range. You will be in a terrible situation if he goes all in after you bet. You may lose value from hands like AA, KK, QQ, or maybe AJ. But you also lose to JJ and a KQ combo draw and the made flush. I could see someone this passive checking to you with a made flush on the river after you have bet each street.