NBA/NCAA Futures -- Longshots

[Homer]

<font color="blue">NBA</font>

Raptors to win East at 20-1 (5Dimes -- now 18-1).

There really aren't any standout teams in the East other than Detroit. Toronto, Washington and Cleveland seem to be in the 2nd tier, ahead of Indiana and Chicago (even though the Raptors have an almost identical record). Washington and Cleveland have been fairly inconsistent throughout the year and I think in the coming weeks Toronto could assert itself as the clear #2 team. Even if not, they can't be much worse than 5-1 against making the conference finals, at which point I could hedge if I wanted to.

Note that they are also available to win the NBA Championship at 55-1. This means if they would be less than a +195 dog in the NBA finals, this bet would be preferable. However, I think they would be a bigger dog (can anyone with more NBA knowledge confirm/deny), so I'm sticking with the 20-1 shot.

<font color="blue">NCAA</font>

Memphis to win it all at 40-1 (5Dimes).

I don't know much about them other than that they're ranked #8 in the nation and have an easy schedule the rest of the way if they can get past Gonzaga tomorrow. They should be either a 2 or 3 in the tournament, with an easy path to the Sweet 16. From there, I don't know what their chances are, but I'll take a stab at 40-1.

Kansas to win it all at 14-1 (5Dimes).

They are obliterating weak opponents and have played top 25 teams tight (beat #1 Florida and #18 Oklahoma St, lost to #6 A&amp;M by 3). I guess this is just a gut feeling for the most part (as opposed to the other two which I think are just soft lines that haven't been adjusted back into place yet). I've watched a number of their games and something about the way they play makes me think they will be a very tough team and can beat anyone in the tournament.

A couple others I considered but ultimately decided against are Georgetown at 30-1 and Wisconsin at 12-1.

Which longshots do you like right now?

[NajdorfDefense]

VaTech, WestVA, Butler, Marquette.
thinking about USC and Virginia.
5/6 or all of these were available at 70-1 or worse recently. I'd have to check all my books to see where I got down on them.

[Queensgrad]

Toronto to win the East looked alot better before DET picked up Webber and Shaq was out. I still think they are better than 5% to win if you can get 20-1. I got 26-1 earlier this year.

Edit. they are 17-1 now, but behind NJ, and ORL.

[NajdorfDefense]

Butler 200-1
WestVa 75-1
VaT 70-1

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Butler 200-1
WestVa 75-1
VaT 70-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone has Butler 200-1 now? PM me with the info, please, if you don't want to share which book here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[WaterOlay]

[ QUOTE ]
Note that they are also available to win the NBA Championship at 55-1. This means if they would be less than a +195 dog in the NBA finals, this bet would be preferable. However, I think they would be a bigger dog (can anyone with more NBA knowledge confirm/deny)

[/ QUOTE ]

I would confirm this.

[NajdorfDefense]

Those were the bets I got down a few weeks ago, I can't imagine Butler is anywhere near that.

Value on Nevada at 50-1? SoIll at 60-1? Butler is 40-1 at the last place I looked. Wazzu is 25-1 at places, but part of 'Field' at bodog at 40-1, some value there.

[wheatrich]

I got So Ill at 80/1.

I saw VT and BC at over 100/1 2 days ago. One of those two was at 144/1.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I got So Ill at 80/1.

I saw VT and BC at over 100/1 2 days ago. One of those two was at 144/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't imagine ranked BC trading that low.

[Spellmen]

Homer, against Phoenix, Dallas, and SA I would think Toronto would be something like +250 or more. I'm not really sure if they'd be around +195 against Houston, LA but I don't think they have much of a chance coming out of the west either