QQ vs TAP and continued aggression

nerdking · #1 02-15-2007, 11:43 PM

villain is 18/13/1.9 over 520 hands. I've only seen him get crazy once. Given his threebet range plus his overall aggression factor I think my actions are justified here. This hand took remarkable discipline and control given what's been going on this session (down 30BB).

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) nerdking is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, nerdking raises, 2 folds, MP3 3-bets, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, nerdking caps, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13.5SB, 3 players)
nerdking bets, MP3 raises, Button folds, nerdking calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.75BB, 2 players)
nerdking checks, MP3 bets, nerdking calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 2 players)
nerdking checks, MP3 bets, nerdking folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to MP3.

Results:
Final pot: 10.75BB

00Snitch · #2 02-16-2007, 12:00 AM

i 3-bet the flop, but then im a bit lost. if i get capped i go c/c, c/f.

if he calls your flop 3-bet, the turn is interesting, i actually think c/c is best. there are not many hands you are ahead of now.

EGO · #3 02-16-2007, 12:20 AM

I play the hand the same way.

I don't 3-bet the flop because if we call, then he might wait for the turn to raise us with better hands, and just fold if he has AK. By letting him take over the action, you can allow him to bluff with AK, and you lose the minimum to an overpair or a JJ set. HPFAP has a chapter on holding QQ in a reraised pot.

If he doesn't have an overpair or a set, it's likely to be AK, probably [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is also possible, especially if he thinks you are a little out of line first in from ep.

The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a bad card for you. One of the hands you were previously beating is now ahead of you. Your Q-high flush draw might be good some percentage of the time, hopefully over 10% of the time when it does come in.

River looks pretty standard.

EGO · #4 02-16-2007, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i 3-bet the flop, but then im a bit lost. if i get capped i go c/c, c/f.

if he calls your flop 3-bet, the turn is interesting, i actually think c/c is best. there are not many hands you are ahead of now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I don't 3-bet the flop.

He can call, cap, or fold to a 3-bet. We can rule out folding straight away.

If I had Aces here, particularly with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then I would probably call the 3-bet and:

1) raise a spade on the turn.
2) call a non-spade on the turn.
3) raise all rivers.

I'd play KK faster since there is an overcard that can beat me.

The TAG can assume, when he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in his hand that the best hand Hero could have with a flush draw is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which isn't too likely. When the turn comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], it's clear that Hero is not on a flush draw, unless he's capping some small connectors or Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (in the situation where TAG has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

If we 3-bet, and TAG has AK, then he might call here and fold on the turn, so we only extract one extra small bet with the best hand. If we 3-bet and TAG has JJ, then we are going to get smoked for alot of bets.

There might be some scenario where 3-betting is best, but I don't think it helps us define Villian's hand any. Because of the flush draw on the flop, and I think the two suited cards is important to our decision, TAG wants to raise to charge the button, who cold-called twice pre-flop, for his draw. Once button is out, our 3-bet loses informational value since TAG might not feel the need to protect his hand as strongly.

I don't think I can fold to a flop cap, but I probably check-call the turn (because of the redraw), and check-fold the turn.

bung · #5 02-16-2007, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i 3-bet the flop, but then im a bit lost. if i get capped i go c/c, c/f.

if he calls your flop 3-bet, the turn is interesting, i actually think c/c is best. there are not many hands you are ahead of now.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're behind AA, AK, JJ, drawing dead to KK.....maybe ahead of TT, chopping with QQ? I doubt TT is raising the flop once OP has capped pf. Villain seems fairly TAG, and I think you can fold this turn. Hero isn't beating anything given the action and reads.

TWIWP, you can't fold the river for one bet.

revlwb · #6 02-16-2007, 12:57 AM

I don't see how you can fold the river here. You call on the turn with the king showing up why not call the river? The pot is too large at this point.

00Snitch · #7 02-16-2007, 01:07 AM

i dont think you can fold this turn with the 2nd nut fd and gutshot.

calling this turn doesnt commit you to calling a river bet.

Point Blank · #8 02-16-2007, 01:10 AM

passive is 2.0 AF? with 18vpip and 13 ... I would say this guy is a pretty average TAG (doesn't get out of line - but bets for value when the situation presents itself)

depending on your EP opening standard, he could be 3balling you with 99+, AQs, AKo

question: if you don't pick up the flush draw on the turn (are you folding?) - or are you waiting for a blank to continue ...

with my range and the flop: stove says you have 51% equity

given this guys action on the flop ... I would say JJ, 99 (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) ... you have 17%

include TT and you have 32%

include AK general you have 38%

I saw some that said to 3bet the flop - I can't see myself doing that at the table ... I'm not ahead of much (even A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] has more equity than me at this point) - TT is about all

again - I think if you call the flop, then you are making a commitment to showdown

EGO · #9 02-16-2007, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
again - I think if you call the flop, then you are making a commitment to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. A king or ace drops our equity against his range signifigantly, and we'll get one of those about a third of the time. Plus, we are getting about 16-1 on the flop call (8-1 if you count both bets we put in), but only 5-1 on the bets we put in on both the turn and river combined with the eventual pot size.

The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives us a good redraw, without which I think folding is probably going to save us some bets over the long run, even if we sometimes fold the best hand.

Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.

Point Blank · #10 02-16-2007, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
again - I think if you call the flop, then you are making a commitment to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. A king or ace drops our equity against his range signifigantly, and we'll get one of those about a third of the time. Plus, we are getting about 16-1 on the flop call (8-1 if you count both bets we put in), but only 5-1 on the bets we put in on both the turn and river combined with the eventual pot size.

The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives us a good redraw, without which I think folding is probably going to save us some bets over the long run, even if we sometimes fold the best hand.

Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.

[/ QUOTE ]

what i'm asking is only for the flop

are you folding the turn, if the turn is not a spade?
... I don't see to much wrong with folding the flop.

because if you call the flop, you should be calling down (should have including ... folding to an Ace or King)

so you are making a commitment of 5 bets to win 20 (so 4:1) - which you have about 17% equity ... but factor in the times you'll fold when a non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Ace or King hits (I would like to know if it's even worth the flop call)
... I do not know how to show this (anyone care to help?)