Afterward, Justin asked me if I was on tilt....

[gonores]

30/60 hand from last night at the Laggi.

UTG and UTG+1 limp. Justin raises next in. CO cold-calls. I have JTo on the button. My assessment is that if the poker table were a bar and all the other players in the hand other than Justin were chicks at said bar, I would be headed straight to the clinic in the morning if I woke up next to any of them. The blinds also suck something awful, and will rarely fold and will raise almost never. I decide it's time to play some poker and throw in a cold-call. Sadly, both blinds fold.

Flop is J97r

Checked to Justin, he bets, CO folds, I look left and see UTG with chips in his hand (this means I could make $300 to go and his money is still probably going in). UTG+1 seems disinterested in the hand, but disinterest may not be enough to make this dude fold. I consider this all, and decide to flat-call Justin's bet. UTG calls and UTG+1 folds. How's my play so far? What is my plan on the turn if it blanks off and Justin bets again?

[cgrohman]

Eh. I dislike the cold call pre-flop. I probably just muck this. If I play it, I probably 3 bet.

I would raise the flop no-matter that UTG has loaded up. You floped top pair and a gutshot, what more do you want?

[mike l.]

wow i got so flamed by gabe and stinkypete when i cold called a raise and some calls and limps w/ JTo in an amazing 1-2 game at commerce last month. and i was sold on it being super bad. so im sticking to what i learned: BAD.

that flop call seems pretty wrong from first read. you just need to raise and define your hand to justin and make utg pay a lot for chasing when he should fold. raise all day there.

[Justin A]

FWIW I think the flop call is excellent.

I specifically asked him if he was on tilt because of the preflop call, because I really think it's pretty bad. Here's some PokerStove numbers, with my rough raising range and assuming the limpers and cold caller have top 40% hands, minus the obvious big hands that they'd raise with. It also assumes one of the blinds will come along with a random hand. In reality the other players are probably a little bit tighter than this.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.271% 26.39% 00.88% 2417278 80618.25 { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 13.799% 12.62% 01.18% 1155504 108377.17 { JTo }
Hand 2: 14.838% 13.63% 01.21% 1248197 110924.83 { 88-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AJo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 14.838% 13.62% 01.21% 1247863 111250.58 { 88-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AJo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 4: 14.825% 13.61% 01.21% 1246784 111093.08 { 88-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AJo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 14.428% 13.66% 00.77% 1250938 70611.08 { random }

As you can see my range hogs up most of the equity, and JTo does worse than even the random hand. JT will often be in a reverse implied odds situation in this spot, and there's no way position can make up for the rather large equity deficiency.

[JadeLane]

I like a fold here preflop. Although some times you just have to gamble. This is the same hand and play I was trying to make when you had KK in the big blind. Great check 3 bet by the way. Anyways I also would have raised the flop. With top pair and a gutshot our hand is pretty strong here and even if behind we have postion on the field. The only problem I see is Justin is not the type to let you get away with a free card play or to play his hand weakly. If he has any reasonable hand he's gonna 3 bet, and now your tied into the river, likely behind, and with the worst relative position.

[The DaveR]

Nothing fancy on the turn. Pretty much only hand you beat that Justin will likely bet a black turn is TT and unless the dynamic between you two isn't play defensively and get to showdown he can't fold a better hand to a single raise. FWIW I make this coldcall OTB a decent amount in local games, but those guys are beyond awful. If you're worried about VD from your crowd, I'd worried about ebola from my crowd.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

just as an fwiw, tommy angelo once coldcalled 3-bets vs me at a 80-160 game with JTo without hesitation in perfect rhythm on the button... and he raised when he flopped top pair.

[dankhank]

without thinking about it too much, this seems like a perfect spot to raise almost any turn card and then check behind most rivers.

[mike l.]

youre not raising A8s, KJo, K9s, 88, 77, T9s, JTs, QTs, 76s? the justin i knew would raise some of those (and others) at least some of the time. if i later questioned him he would say with utter confidence "no, did you see those people? they just needed to be raised with all sorts of hands!"

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
without thinking about it too much, this seems like a perfect spot to raise almost any turn card and then check behind most rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree except for the fact that the post suggests strongly that no one behind would fold a bare 8.