Potentially interesting (or maybe silly) theoretical question

[DrModern]

You’re playing in a live short-handed game. It’s folded to your opponent in the CO who open-raises. In the process of looking at his cards, he accidentally exposes his hand to you. He has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. In another bizarre accident, the blinds accidentally fold out of turn, thinking that you don’t have cards. When you do look down, you find K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You know that if you decide to play the hand, you will be at an equity disadvantage on all bets going in preflop against your opponent’s hand.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.445% 54.17% 00.28% 4311401 22161.50 { A2o }
Hand 1: 45.555% 45.28% 00.28% 3603830 22161.50 { KQs }

What do you do and why?

Assume another unlikely thing happens, too. After preflop, you have a severe brainfart and forget your opponents cards.

[Befolder]

Unless I know this opponent folds too much on the flop if missing, easy fold. Since they'll miss 2/3 of the time, I could safely bet or raise to take it away.

Edit: Some will argue that we can make more after the flop because of position and such, but we are supposed to forget opponents cards and also we have no read of how they play.

Also, if any of the AQo OTB 8 way raisers says to play this hand, they are hypocrits. Saying to raise w/ their tiny edge there and not fold because they have a -EV edge here are a bit out of whack, moreso because we know for sure our equity is negative.

[DrModern]

Let's say your opponent is otherwise unknown to you. Why do you think this an easy fold?

[Befolder]

Simple, playing the hand is -EV and since we don't know what hand they have after the flop, our advantage is pretty much gone.

[milesdyson]

Since I'm going to forget his cards postflop, I want to make sure I have the initiative because he has such a crappy hand that can't continue very often.

Ignoring us ever improving, if he check folds the flop 50% of the time after we 3-bet him, we turn a slight profit on this play (4/8.5 = 47%). Add in the fact that we play better and have position and this is a super easy 3-bet.

[Befolder]

Knowing that he would fold the flop too much makes it playable, but we don't know that, thus can't really factor it in.

[Grease]

I 3-bet with a few ifs:

If it will get me fold equity if the board gets scary
If my opponent is less likely to call me down with A high if I 3-bet rather than just call
Also, if I spike a K or Q, the extra money might entice him to try to chase his 3 outer.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Knowing that he would fold the flop too much makes it playable, but we don't know that, thus can't really factor it in.

[/ QUOTE ]
How often does A2o hit the flop in a way that some random live player will call after being 3-bet preflop?

[Befolder]

What we know. Our opponent is at least liberally aggressive pre flop since he raised w/ ace-rag. We can then lean towards him being more likely to be aggressive postflop rather than passive I'd think.

That conjecture makes this a fold even moreso since the possibility of being raised on the flop is more likely.

[milesdyson]

What flops is he going to raise? J96? Live players will almost never check raise the flop with air after you 3-bet them preflop. You would only get check raised on A2x or 345, seriously. In general live players won't check raise postflop without absolute monsters.