30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2

JadeLane · #1 02-14-2007, 01:48 AM

THE SETUP: Early in the evening games are weak but not alot of action. An asian woman (who I know very well to be a terrible player. She tilts easily and will usually go off for big loses.) sits to my right. When she arrives at the table she's stuck good, but after a couple suck outs she is soaring. She's up about 3 thousand and is now on reverse tilt thinking the poker gods somehow now favor her.
THE HAND: 7 handed. A local player limps as does the Villian. I find A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raise, folding the button, the small, and the large blind. Both limpers call flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] every one checks. Hero fires. Limper folds. Villain calls. At this poing literally she could still have any two. I'm serious she could be floating with like some J8 [censored] here. Hoping to make anything. Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain checks. Hero Bets. Villian Check raises. Hero three bets.( pretty standard ehh.) Villian calls. River 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villian checks. Hero Bets. Villian Check raises. PUKE. 14 to 1. Whats the play?

jambony · #2 02-14-2007, 02:03 AM

Er, call? What other play would there be.

private joker · #3 02-14-2007, 02:27 AM

I'm not sure the turn 3-bet is standard. This will get her to immediately fold a ton of hands you crush. I might just call and let her bet the river on another bluff. For her to call the turn she has to have either the case A or a spade draw, right? I mean is she calling with a dry 8? Doubtful.

So I might be a pwassy and check behind on the river. Hopefully that's not a results-oriented statement.

Anyway, once that flop hits I am never ever folding this hand against her no matter what. Jambony has this one correct -- there's absolutely no other play but call. And expect to lose much of the time.

thirddan · #4 02-14-2007, 02:33 AM

i think the turn 3bet is pretty standard...villain played this hand like most people play an A...our hand beats most aces...

and joker...i highly doubt that you would check behind that river if you had played the hand...

Scary_Tiger · #5 02-14-2007, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Er, call? What other play would there be.

[/ QUOTE ]

dcb777 · #6 02-14-2007, 02:39 AM

I agree with Joker on this one. The turn 3bet is NOT standard at all in my play. I would rather call the turn and river or call turn and bet the river if checked to.

I think that you are giving way to much action on this hand by paying off the river (5BB) with a semi-strong hand. Given that you bloated the pot so much on the turn you might be forced to call the river.

JadeLane · #7 02-14-2007, 02:41 AM

She would most certainly call with an 8 here. Once in the pot she was not folding. Also she could have any pocket pair which trust me she's showdown bound with. Againgst a tricker or even regular player I don't mind a little slow play but against this pay off machine it's 3 bet city.

I figured a call on the river would be pretty much standard. However, in the hand I just don't see her bluffing here. Do you? The pots big and she's a Player who really just likes to call. Do you think often enough she could have a weaker ace that's kicker isn't on board.

THE RESULTS: I called she showed Ah6d. Barf!

private joker · #8 02-14-2007, 02:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think the turn 3bet is pretty standard...villain played this hand like most people play an A...our hand beats most aces...

and joker...i highly doubt that you would check behind that river if you had played the hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right about the river.

But as for the turn I think there are more combos of bluffs and draws and weak pairs than there are Aces, since it would have to be the case ace. Based on that I just call the turn and call the river. That sounds weak, but I'm not doing it because I think we're beat -- I'm doing it because I think we make just as much or more when we're ahead and save a lot more when we're behind. (Also, the reason I fear she folds to the turn 3-bet is because in Vegas, unlike L.A., people actually fold).

JadeLane · #9 02-14-2007, 02:46 AM

This is true. But also in Vegas people tend not to be as aggresive with draws and Smaller pairs. When she checkraises here i put her on the case. Otherwise i feel she just check calls.

7ontheline · #10 02-14-2007, 03:17 AM

Calling the river at this point seems like a no-brainer.

The interesting part of the hand is the turn action. Raising is correct if she has: the case ace with worse kicker or a flush draw. It is incorrect if she is bluffing or has a really weak hand, or if she has a better ace (unlikely, given no pf raise) or a boat already (also probably unlikely). If she has a medium strength hand here (say, an 8 or higher pair) then it depends, right? Given the description of the player, it sounds like she wouldn't fold so it would raising is correct, right? So, is she likely to get tricky with a draw or a bluff here? Sounds like no, although clearly only OP knows. So, does she have a worse ace more often than a better hand? I would imagine so. Doesn't that make 3-balling the turn correct, assuming OP's reads are correct? Certainly, this would be a different play against an unknown or a different player. I think then the call turn c/r, call river/bet if checked to line is more profitable.