$27: Overbetting like a pro

LordTacohead · #1 02-13-2007, 02:50 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t1515)
BB (t1580)
UTG (t1280)
Hero (t1470)
MP1 (t1520)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1340)
CO (t1400)
Button (t1925)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls t30, 3 folds, CO calls t30, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t105) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t105) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets t90, BB folds, Hero calls t90.

River: (t285) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t1350 (All-In)

I think it's impossible for most villains to get away from a one-card straight here, but I probably lose value from funky two-pair hands. Yea or nay?

FeNeF · #2 02-13-2007, 02:52 AM

It's funny. A hand rather similar to this was posted from the other perspective, and some people here advocated calling with the naked Q. If we're willing to do it, he might be do. I like the play.

shakyamuni · #3 02-13-2007, 02:57 AM

mmm if it had been the 8h or 8s i like the play alot more - if villain does have the one card str8 he now has to worry about the flush and the paired board which makes it alot easier to get away from imho - i think you let him off the hook too often here...

luckydonk · #4 02-13-2007, 03:50 AM

i fold everything lol

RRiccio · #5 02-13-2007, 04:12 AM

OP, I like it.

Poseido · #6 02-13-2007, 09:30 AM

Prefer a value bet.

Mike MacIntosh · #7 02-13-2007, 01:30 PM

Close between betting for value and over betting. I like the over bet here because there are so many hands that an average $27 villain will never get away from in this spot.

wiggs73 · #8 02-13-2007, 01:34 PM

Only thing about it is, this is almost always the nuts or close to it... not that people at the 27s are great from getting away from big hands.

I think whoever mentioned they'd like it more if the river weren't a club has a decent point.

I think a check/raise might be good here.

tozzy · #9 02-13-2007, 01:50 PM

This play is okay, but its not the best.
The best line ist to bet this hand straightout.
We're not giving away any value if villain has a flush close to the nuts, but gaining a lot as he may call a valuebet with something like toppair or whatever he believes to be mediocre.
c/r is bad because this turn bet mostly is just a stealing attempt, and still, if im wrong, this rivercard then must have scared him as i cant see him betting here unless ofc he has some 2pair or flush from which we'll get our value anyways.

wiggs73 · #10 02-13-2007, 03:09 PM

tozzy,

What rationale do you have behind thinking the turn bet is a steal attempt?

Also, you said that you don't see him betting the river unless he has 2 pair or a flush. If he's betting 2 pair isn't he betting a straight also? So following this logic, he either has air and was attempting to steal on the turn... air isn't calling a river bet... or he has 2 pair / a straight / a flush and will bet the river most of the time if checked to... so I'm failing to see how you're arguing that a check/raise is bad using that logic.

Of course if you think he has Jx often here then that's a different story, but I'm still not sure Jx, 9x, etc. call a river bet very often on a 4-straight, 3-flush, paired board.