AK facing turn action with just gutshot and overcards

[timoK]

3/6 6max – Party Poker

Hero is UTG with AKo

Hero bets, 2 folds, BU calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop [ J T 2] (rainbow)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, BU calls, BB folds

Turn 7 (second spade on the board)

Hero bets, BU raises, Hero?


Villain seems to be LAGish but no showdown monkey. Havent caught him pure bluffing yet.
Easy fold or call/fold UI?

What if a A, K or Queen of spades hit?

[Assahai]

Well it looks to me that the button may have pocket TT, or maybe 77 if he's loose.
To fold or call, tough choice. I can't really say, I think this is quite near EV 0 decision.

If you do call, check on the river no matter what card comes. If it's a queen, check-raise.

[Oink]

getting ~7:1 I think you have to call the turn raise. Which is why I c/c the turn against an aggressive player.

As played I will donk/fold As and Ks and c/r/c Qs.

[TomBrooks]

Tread lightly when the flop is JTX.

[johnnyrocket]

loooks like u donked another one. With that coordinated of a board and the guy just calling preflop it is a clear turn check. You are going to get called or raised very often here.

[johnnyrocket]

your question is just simple math, if you think AKQ are all outs then you have 10 with 46 unseen cards so 36-10, if your pot odds are better then a simple call. Add in implied odds for the river betting, also your king and ace might not be live so its prolly like 5-1 odds. Very simple call, go thru this math when you play, otherwise you will be making many wrong decisions.

[pmiranda.pt]

[ QUOTE ]
call, check on the river no matter what card comes. If it's a queen, check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
your question is just simple math, if you think AKQ are all outs then you have 10 with 46 unseen cards so 36-10, if your pot odds are better then a simple call. Add in implied odds for the river betting, also your king and ace might not be live so its prolly like 5-1 odds. Very simple call, go thru this math when you play, otherwise you will be making many wrong decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

errr... well it is math but u have to have a good system for counting partial outs otherwise u either will discount them too much and fold too often or count them as too full of outs and make leaking -EV calls too often. Also u have to know when and how to apply implied odds (if they are even positive).

count ur A and K outs as 1.5 each for those times ur reverse dominated and give urself 3 outs for the Q those times villain has a Q in his hand or the spade is no good (not often unless he has pair and fd). Now compare ur outs to the pot odds ur getting vs what ud need to get for the call to be breakeven. I gave u 5-6 outs so we need pot odds of 7 or 8:1.

u should def learn these odds and how to count partial outs tho these situations come up alot