Kings got check-raised two times, still see the showdown

[Varian]

No reads on villain at this time. Comments on all streets are appreciated.

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Varian is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Varian raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8SB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Varian bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Varian 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 caps</font>, Varian calls, SB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Varian raises</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (14BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Varian bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, Varian calls.

Results:
Final pot: 18BB

[kaby]

Check behind on the river imho. I would've just called the turn I think, getting threebetted would suck.

[fretelöo]

PF and flop are fine. After that, I call down. You told him loud and clear that you beat TP. If he still likes his hand enough to come out betting, it's time to slow down.

[Fadook]

GRUNCH: Overplayed IMO. Call down from the flop cap.

[kerowo]

Why did you bet the river? What were you thinking this guy had been betting with the whole way? What was your plan if he 3-bet the turn?

If he went to town like this with Qx make a note, but without reads I don't want to give him a chance to c/r me twice so I probably check behind on the river.

[hunter.chief]

*grunch*
Call down after villain caps flop. But your flop play seems fine to me.

[FUJItheFISH]

value bet the river. call the river c/r.

why is everybody scared? hero has KK = the nuts. villain needs to have 75cc to beat us.

[fretelöo]

... or 88, 44, QQ, Q8s...

[Varian]

Thanks everyone so far; preflop and flop are fine in my opinion. Some thoughts on the other streets. I try to defend my line (for the sake of the discussion), but after all i am not convinced of it.

A decent player could cap a threehanded flop with a solid flush draw. In villains shoes i would cap the flop with AQ and possibly with KQ (more read depend) too. He could be a fool anyway and do this with Qx. I fear a bottom set. 84, Q4 and QQ are pretty implausible because of his preflop play. Q8 is still implausible. Some after all there are 12 plausible hands that beat me (and i am drawing thin) and way more implausible ones. There are at least 12 likely hands i am ahead and way more implausible ones.

Too argue for the turn raise: villain could donk with some of his hands i beat because he thinks he is ahead. Note, as a second argument, that i cut the odds for SB down, so that he cannot call profitably with a gutshot (check the board) or a pair but could so if i just call.

The river: well, bottom sets would 3-bet the turn but his other possible hands probably not. Furthermore the second 8 decreases his chance of holding such a set. Villain checks and i consider this to be an easy value bet. Calling his check-raise: I need 5-6% probability that my hand is still best.

Having written these arguments down i think the turn raise is wrong: After the flop but before the donk we have a coinflip. But he donks more of his strong hands than his weak ones, so Bayesian reasoning suggests that i am behind.

[VickreyAuction]

I'd call down after the flop gets capped. Since you did raise the turn and he didn't reraise, river is a clear bet in my view.