Baseball projection question (BIGGIO)

[Card08]

CLIFF NOTES: Huge Astros fan. Wanna see Biggio hit #3,000. Will be out of state over the summer. Want to calculate best guess of when Biggio will do it. Please advise. PAGING NATE THA GREAT...PAGING NATE THA GREAT

Baseball, seemingly more than any other sport, has a fan base that is fixated on milestone numbers. 3,000 hits falls near the top of the list. I am a lifelong Houston Astros fan. 41-year old, career-long Astro Craig Biggio has 2,930 career hits and is expected to reach 3,000 hits this season.

I am a college student in California. I should be working on the East or West coast after mid-June. I want to be there for that game, and I want to bring a few friends. I am certain that tickets will be snapped up very quickly when he gets within striking distance. They won't let him do this on the road. My question is "what is the best way to go about determining when he gets there?"

I'd put Biggio's chances of missing the mark altogether very low, say between 10-15%. Since 1995 he has played fewer than 140 games only once, that one instance being due to a freak knee injury in 2000 that caused him to miss around 60 games. He shouldn't have as much of a fatigue issue with free agent signing Mark Loretta and super utility guy Eric Bruntlett to spell him on day games after night games and here and there on the road.

Now- let's get down to the numbers on when he should reach the mark. Checking his PECOTA, I see that the 50th percentile of his weighted mean as a .259 average on 330 plate appearances. I would call this plate appearance number low when Biggio and the Astros' entire reason for bringing him back is to rap out those last 70 hits. However, these generally lower PA numbers are part of the beast that is PECOTA.

As for batting average, Id say .240-.265 is a good benchmark to go by. He hit better than that through July last year (.272) before wearing out and completely wetting the bed in August and September (.189 over 176 ABs). 11 of his 145 games played last year were only pinch-hitting appearances. We can extrapolate from there and see that he had 577PA/134G. That gives us an average of 4.3 PAs per game.

Biggio is expected to hit leadoff again this year as he did last year. The Astros lineup is strengthened near the top with Chris Burke taking over from Willy Taveras and RBI Buffet LEE shoring up the 4 hole behind Berkman. I'd expect Biggio to see a few more plate appearances, say 4.35 PA per game. He should start 6/7 games on average (last year he often sat out on the Sunday matinee games).

NOTE: This number could easily be revised downward if Biggio falters early or Mark Loretta proves himself more than serviceable at 2nd base. The Astros may also ride Biggio a little harder if Ensberg is dealt as has been widely speculated, setting up a Loretta/Mike Lamb platoon at 3rd base.

Now is where I do some VERY blunt calculations. Lets say he hits .250 until reaching the milestone, getting off to a decent start and closing in on the record without too much fatigue. While I would wager he wouldn't stay in the leadoff spot very long with that production, the Astros don't have any far superior options (aside maybe Burke or a creative use of OBP-man but trigger-shy Morgan Ensberg). So... .250 would mean 70 hits in 280 ABs. We will use 1/16 ABs as Biggio's walk rate as his numbers have been around there for the last 3 years (1/17, 1/17, 1/15). With 280 ABs we would require 299 PAs when considering the walkrate (280/15+ANS=299). This would give us Biggio crossing the mark after 69 games started (299 PAs/4.35 PA/g). We will edge that number down to 68 to account for intermittent pinch hitting success. Assuming Biggio plays 6/7 games a week, that comes out to 79 games (68*7/6).

This number (79 games) sounds very optimistic to me. My guess before working through the numbers a bit would have been somewhere between 85-100 games. My gut reaction may be closer to the mark as Biggio is STILL 41 years old, the Astros should be somewhat competitive in a parity heavy NL Central, and Loretta could steal some PAs. Game 68 against Seattle, just before a 9 game road-trip, sounds too early to come into play. Games # 78-89 comprise a 12 game homestand from June 28-July 8. That’s a nice sweet spot falling just before the All-Star game. The high end of my expectations has him reaching 3,000 between July 23 and July 29, games 99-105, a seven-game homestand.

Does anyone have any compelling reasons why I shouldn’t try to pick up tickets for these games? I can always sell them off if I don’t use them or he falls off the face of the Earth…a decade and a half of fandom has made this a risk I am willing to take. MORE IMPORTANTLY…does anyone have any significant alterations to my calculations or suggestions to improve my methods? Is there anything huge that I am overlooking? As of right now it is a lot of eyeballing numbers and simple math. Where would you set the over/under on Biggio reaching 3,000 hits?

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[DrewDevil]

I am a huge lifelong Astros fan and I've been wanting Bidge to retire for 4 years. He had a surprisingly good season in 05 but he was horrible last year and he will probably be even worse this year.

At least they finally moved him out of the leadoff spot... it was awesome having a leadoff guy who doesn't get on base that much and who couldn't beat me to a free meal.

Sorry, what was the question?

[jjp]

Do it simple. He needs 70 hits, he got 135 hits last year. Should be sometime after mid season. Beyond that, you are just guessing.

[SJUHawks]

Is buying season tickets out of your price range? You could always sell the ones you don't use. Also, not sure if this works everywhere, but the Phillies used to let season ticket holders trade in tickets for future games. That might work too.

Just a thought.

[Aceshigh7]

To those saying Biggio should have retired, he's still in the upper half of second basemen in terms of offensive production.

His home run, doubles, and RBI numbers are excellent for a second baseman, expecially hitting where he has in the lineup.

He's still producing. Burke and Lorretta are not that much better than Bidge in most categories, and worse in some.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a huge lifelong Astros fan and I've been wanting Bidge to retire for 4 years. He had a surprisingly good season in 05 but he was horrible last year and he will probably be even worse this year.

At least they finally moved him out of the leadoff spot... it was awesome having a leadoff guy who doesn't get on base that much and who couldn't beat me to a free meal.

Sorry, what was the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh...

2003: .350/.412 44 doubles
2004: .337/.469 47 doubles
2005: .324/.466 40 doubles
2006: .306/.422 33 doubles

2006 wasn't great, but it's better than a lot of 2nd basemen. That being said, wtf is wrong with you with regard to 03-05? He was legitimately quite good, even if his defense is not terribly great (depending on which system you look at). It would be different if the Astros could replace him with someone that could produce, but the problem is that the Astros young talent sucks donkey balls.

[DrewDevil]

Those are on-base percentages, I assume? That's really not very good for a leadoff man, is it?

Okay, maybe these stats are kicking my ass, but I watched quite a few games during that span and it just seemed like he sucked... coming up short in the clutch, not getting on base very much, getting thrown out at home, stumbling around in the field... it was just my impression.

Maybe I'm wrong. It's happened a couple of times.

[Card08]

Yeah, Biggio is old, but he has managed to slug at an OK clip and take full advantage of the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid. I would give Drew a little credit from the visuals though. Biggio has always had a habit of guessing spots rather than trying to recognize the pitch out of the pitcher's hand. This leads to some pretty horrible cuts when a slider comes in a fastball count or when an unexpected changeup comes. He's been guessing more and thus missing ugly more. Lately, his poor range and glove have been tolerable only because of his bat was a + in the 2B slot. The days of Biggio in the outfield and Kent at 2B were REALLY unwatchable.

[rwperu34]

Just pay the premium from a scalper when he gets close. You don't even know if he's going to reach the milestone at home. You don't know if he's going to go on the DL...etc. It will be only slightly more of a financial burden and far less stress just to buy the ticket(s) on e-bay when he gets to 2995 and go wherever.

[Card08]

Looks like the estimate of 79 games played was pretty close as Biggio picked up hit #2998 tonight (in game 79). He should have at least 2 more ABs in this game.