RNGs and results based thinking

[Tomatoes]

Just read an interesting article and thought I'd share it... something to think about next time you fold a hand (in an on-line game) before all the community cards have been dealt only to find that you would have had the best hand if you had stayed in. The truth is that if you had stayed in, the cards that were dealt would probably have been different cards than the ones that were actually dealt after you folded.

I'll quote part of the article below; the complete article can be found at http://www.overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/FreeYourMind.

"One of the most maddening things about community card games like Texas Hold'em is that we can see what we would have had if we stayed in. Or at least, that's true in real life. In online poker, that's not true.

Many people reading this will be shocked. . . after all, in real-world poker, once the cards are shuffled, the order is not going to change. Whether you fold or stay, the next cards will be the next cards. But online, that is not true. They are not shuffled at all. Instead, every time a cards is necessary, one is chosen at random from the available cards. Let me say that again: the next card is not even decided until it's necessary.

This is done to ensure that the cards are random and unpredictable to players. You see, which card will be randomly picked is a function of many timing delays, including the time it takes players to make their decisions. So if you fold, you are no longer a timing factor. The cards that come later are not the same ones that would have come if you had stayed in, and continued to affect the play of the hand. For more technical details on how it works, see RandomNumberGenerator.

The upshot is that once you fold, you will never know what "would have" happened if you stayed in. The converse is true, too. . . when you stay in, it's not a given that a particular [card] will come or not. You can't conclude that you should not have called with your four-flush just because it didnt' come in; if you folded, it might have! Every player involved is affecting the timing and therefore the outcome. You can't say what would have happened if you acted differently, because your different action would change what happened. . ."

[Talon0110]

I never thought of it that way before...very interesting information....nice post.