firing 3 barrels

[jstill]

this villain is a bit of an aggro monkey to be honest, he likes to 3bet check-raises with crap to get cheaper showdowns with marginal hands like underpairs or bottom pair and makes idiotic turn raises fairly often.

Im not sure what he thinks of me. he definitely knows im aggressive though, ive been running pretty well though and showing down mostly winners and strong hands not sure if that matters as much as other things...

villain raises otb, hero calls in the bb with Jd8d

flop 9d 7d 4
hero checks, villain bets, hero raises, villain calls

turn 5
hero bets, villain calls

river 5
hero bets.... i dont expect him to fold any pair, i also dont expect this to be an auto call from A hi either?

how much of whether this is a good play or not depends on our read? and how much of whether its good or not is based on the board and his passive action so far in the hand?

second hand
villain is a light peeler on rag boards even often on the turn

villain raises, sb calls, hero calls in bb with 7d5d

flop 8 9d 2d
sb checks, hero checks, villain bets (automatic cb), sb folds, hero raises, villain calls

turn 4
hero bets, villain calls

river A
hero bets...

bad river card for this? bad play on any river?

how much do u think my description of these two villains to begin with should dissuade me from not only firing the 3rd barrel but check-raise semi-bluffing the flop HU to begin with??

[jba]

hand 1 I think the 5 is a bad card for getting A high to fold, but I'd probably still take a change.

hand 2 you never said villains position, anything but OTB I think the river bet is spew.

[jstill]

it was the CO sorry

[sharpie]

Hand 1 I would expect him to get aggro somewhere with a flopped draw. He could have something like K8 that turned a gutshot, or even just overcards, sounds like he might peel the turn with those. I think he has ace high alot, and isn't folding it, but I'd probably give it a shot.

Hand 2 I don't expect him to fold an ace high much if he got to the river with it, so that ace on the river makes it more likely he doesn't have one so it's not really a bad card. The only bad thing is he might be inclined to bluff raise, but I'd still put in a bet as there are quite a few better busted draws, and he sounds like the type who would peel the turn with a hand like KT.

[johnnyrocket]

if he called the turn with ace high and the board paired on the river no reason to think he'd fold, just back off

[johnnyrocket]

calculate the odds, say its 8BB in the pot and u bet 1BB on the river, if he folds 1 in 9 here then its a good bet...you must assess this in lots of bluffing hands to figure out if it is a +EV play or not.

[jstill]

actually johnny if theres 8 bbs in the pot u need him to fold a better hand 1/8 times for ur bluff to show a profit (investment vs return).

I do think about this type of calculation, but it doesnt give us a clear cut answer here since we cant put him on an exact range of hands or accurately predict what percentage of the time he folds each holding.

Since u brought it up though how do we calculate the odds and decide if its good or not? ok so our bluff in hand one needs to work 1:6. Is one sixth of his range better hands that will fold? If not what range of better hands is and thus what pot odds would we need for the bluff to be EV? and how does his calling standards change as the pot grows (if at all), will he be much more likely to muck A hi in a 5 bb pot than a 10 bb pot or a 20 bb pot? probably.

the second hand is actually more straightforward to look at since there arent the outside chances he bluffs us off a better hand if we check (probably mostly negligible in the first hand as well though). If we check, our EV is 0 if we bet its.... depends how often he folds a better hand (which is his whole range really). we need it to work 1:7 though, is that realistic? im not sure thats why I asked but we cant determine it from simply knowing how often it has to work, but we should know how often it has to work to make the best decision we can from partial information.

[LuckyLucky]

I would be surprised if you don't get called in both spots.

Both boards are so raggy and both times the draws missed. A high calls down quite regularly. After raising the flop and betting the turn I just can't see how you are getting anything to drop on the river in either case.

That being said you have no showdown value so you've gotta take a shot at the pot occasionally.

Sometimes I bet/3bet these flops. They just believe that I have a pair more often and I get more folds.

Against villians who don't fold A high to flop c/rs, I try not to c/r them with draws. It just ties them to their hand more.